{"id":2442,"date":"2026-03-04T21:05:35","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T21:05:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=2442"},"modified":"2026-03-05T17:19:36","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T17:19:36","slug":"march-2026-market-update-sluggish-growth-mixed-inflation-signals-and-heightened-global-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2026\/03\/04\/march-2026-market-update-sluggish-growth-mixed-inflation-signals-and-heightened-global-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"March 2026 Market Update  \u2013 Sluggish Growth, Mixed Inflation Signals, and Heightened Global Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px;line-height: 24px;color: #000000\"><strong>Last Month in the Markets: February 2 &#8211; 27, 2026<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-2448 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-05-073818-300x96.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"616\" height=\"197\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-05-073818-300x96.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-05-073818-1024x328.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-05-073818-768x246.png 768w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-05-073818.png 1079w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 616px) 100vw, 616px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">Index returns based on index value (source: Bloomberg\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\">https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>, MSCI\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search\">https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis. Price returns are reflected)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;line-height: 14px\"><strong>What happened in February?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-2444 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2026\/03\/Picture2-300x136.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"655\" height=\"297\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2026\/03\/Picture2-300x136.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2026\/03\/Picture2.png 402w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 655px) 100vw, 655px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">(source: Bloomberg\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\">https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The events that influenced markets in February included:<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. February 5 \u2013 European Central Bank held rates unchanged<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The European Central Bank left its three key interest rates unchanged. According to its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/pr\/date\/2026\/html\/ecb.mp260205~001d26959b.en.html\">monetary policy decision<\/a>, \u201cthe outlook remains uncertain,\u201d partly due to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. February 6 \u2013 Canadian employment and U.S. employment data disappointed<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>According to the most recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/n1\/daily-quotidien\/260206\/dq260206a-eng.htm?HPA=1&amp;indid=3587-2&amp;indgeo=0\">Labour Force Survey<\/a>, employment in Canada edged down in January by 25,000 (-0.1 per cent), and the employment rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 60.8 per cent.<br \/>\nIn the United States, unemployment data also showed some softening. In 255 of 387 U.S. metropolitan areas, the unemployment rate in December 2025 was higher than one year earlier. The national unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent, up from 3.8 per cent in December 2024.<\/p>\n<p>In 255 of 387 U.S. metropolitan areas, the unemployment rate in December 2025 was higher than one year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. National employment was 4.1 per cent, up from 3.8 per cent in December 2024.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/archives\/metro_02062026.htm\">BLS Metro Employment Report &#8211; Dec 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>3. February 11 \u2013 U.S. employment report showed moderate job growth<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its delayed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/archives\/empsit_02112026.htm\">Employment Situation Summary<\/a>, \u201cTotal nonfarm payroll employment rose 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent.\u201d For context, in 2023, 2024 and 2025, monthly job gains averaged 210,000, 122,000 and 15,000, respectively.\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/11\/the-jobs-picture-still-looks-muddy-even-with-surprisingly-strong-january-growth.html\">CNBC and Employment<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>4. February 13 \u2013 U.S. CPI and corporate performance improved<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The U.S. Consumer Price Index increased by 0.2 per cent in January, and rose 2.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\">release from the BLS<\/a>. While inflation has moderated, the annual rate remains above the U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s long-term target of 2 per cent.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/13\/cpi-inflation-report-january-2026.html\">CNBC and CPI<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>5. February 17\u2013 Canadian consumer prices eased slightly<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Canada\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3 per cent year-over-year in January, down slightly from 2.4 per cent in December. Lower gasoline prices, which have fallen nearly 17 per cent since January 2025, were the largest contributor to the moderation in headline inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.4 per cent and continues to move gradually toward the Bank of Canada\u2019s 2 per cent target. <a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/n1\/daily-quotidien\/260217\/dq260217a-eng.htm\">StatsCan and CPI<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/business\/canada-inflation-cpi-january-2026-9.7093329\">CBC and CPI<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>6. February 19 \u2013 Trade balance data released amid tariff developments<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The U.S. trade deficit totaled $901.5 billion in 2025, a modest decline of 0.2 per cent from the previous year. Trade policy developments also remained in focus after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling determined that the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose certain tariffs was unlawful. New tariffs of 10 per cent, later increased to 15 per cent, were subsequently announced under a different legislative authority. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/foreign-trade\/Press-Release\/current_press_release\/ft900.pdf\">Trade Deficit release<\/a>s\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/21\/supreme-courts-trump-tariff-decision-five-takeaways.html\">SCOTUS decision<\/a><\/p>\n<p>In Canada, the annual trade deficit widened to $31.3 billion in 2025, the largest since the pandemic. Exports to the United States declined by 5.8 per cent, while imports from the United States fell by 2.9 per cent. Canada\u2019s trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to $81.6 billion from $101.3 billion in 2024. <a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/news\/economy\/canada-2025-trade-deficit-widest-outside-pandemic\">NP and trade deficit<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>7. February 20 \u2013 U.S. GDP growth slowed in Q4<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>U.S. Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 1.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025. Economic growth came in below expectations, with government spending temporarily declining during the U.S. government shutdown. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/20\/pce-inflation-december-2025.html\">CNBC and GDP<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>8. February 20\u2013 U.S. inflation indicator rose slightly<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose to 2.9 per cent year over year in December. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/data\/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index\">BEA and PCE<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>9. February 27 \u2013 Canadian GDP declined in Q4<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Canadian real gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 after rising 0.6 per cent in the third quarter. The decline was partly attributed to weaker export activity.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/n1\/daily-quotidien\/260227\/dq260227a-eng.htm?HPA=1&amp;indid=3278-1&amp;indgeo=0\">StatsCan GDP release<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"line-height: 14px\"><span style=\"color: #000000;line-height: 14px\"><strong>What&#8217;s ahead for March and beyond?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>February ended with reports of coordinated military strikes by the United States and Israel targeting Iranian leadership and nuclear-related infrastructure. Iran subsequently responded with attacks on U.S. and Israeli interests across the region.<\/p>\n<p>Markets reacted quickly at the beginning of March. Gold and oil prices rose sharply on the first trading day of the month. North American equity markets were relatively flat on March 2 before declining at the open the following day.<\/p>\n<p>In the medium and long term, inflation, employment trends, economic growth, and monetary policy will continue to influence financial markets. In the near term, developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on energy supply and prices may play an important role.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/v\/vix.asp\">VIX Volatility Index<\/a>, which measures the market\u2019s expectations of near-term price changes in the S&amp;P 500, has also risen. Market volatility may remain elevated while the geopolitical developments continue to evolve.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2026\/03\/March-2026-Monthly-Market-Update.pdf\">Click To View PDF<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>February ended with reports of coordinated military strikes by the United States and Israel targeting Iranian leadership and nuclear-related infrastructure. Iran subsequently responded with attacks on U.S. and Israeli interests across the region.<\/p>\n<p>Markets reacted quickly at the beginning of March. Gold and oil prices rose sharply on the first trading day of the month. North American equity markets were relatively flat on March 2 before declining at the open the following day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":155,"featured_media":2445,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>March 2026 Market Update \u2013 Sluggish Growth, Mixed Inflation Signals, and Heightened Global Risk - Wagner Investment Management Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Last year was productive for equity investors, with Canadian and American indexes delivering strong returns for the third consecutive year. However, it wasn\u2019t without turbulence. The first quarter saw modest gains until a major policy announcement in early April introduced a new round of trade tariffs, sparking a global trade conflict.By Friday, April 4, the North American equity indexes had plunged between 6.32 per cent and 10.02 per cent for the week. The MSCI All Country World Index fell 7.91 per cent over the same period, signifying the depth and breadth of the negative effects of tariffs on equity values around the world. 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However, it wasn\u2019t without turbulence. The first quarter saw modest gains until a major policy announcement in early April introduced a new round of trade tariffs, sparking a global trade conflict.By Friday, April 4, the North American equity indexes had plunged between 6.32 per cent and 10.02 per cent for the week. The MSCI All Country World Index fell 7.91 per cent over the same period, signifying the depth and breadth of the negative effects of tariffs on equity values around the world. 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