{"id":2482,"date":"2026-05-06T19:54:49","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T19:54:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=2482"},"modified":"2026-05-07T16:10:07","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T16:10:07","slug":"may-2026-market-update-easing-volatility-oil-driven-inflation-pressures-and-central-bank-policy-pause","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2026\/05\/06\/may-2026-market-update-easing-volatility-oil-driven-inflation-pressures-and-central-bank-policy-pause\/","title":{"rendered":"May 2026 Market Update \u2013 Easing Volatility, Oil\u2011Driven Inflation Pressures, and Central Bank Policy Pause"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Month in the Markets: April 1 – 30, 2026<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Index returns based on index value (source: Bloomberg\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>, MSCI\u00a0https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis. Price returns are reflected)<\/p>\n

What happened in April?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Market performance in April occurred despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and elevated investor concerns surrounding global events. North American equity indexes rose between 3.5 per cent and 15 per cent during the month, bringing major U.S. indexes back into positive territory on a year-to-date basis. The TSX and NASDAQ both posted year-to-date gains of approximately 7.1 per cent.<\/span><\/p>\n

Over the past year, returns across these major indexes have ranged from approximately 22 per cent to 42 per cent, representing strong performance despite periods of market volatility and uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n

As markets advanced during April, volatility levels moderated compared to recent months, which can be an encouraging sign for investors. The VIX volatility index also declined during the month.<\/span> VIX volatility index<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(source: Bloomberg\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets <\/a>and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events that influenced markets in April included:<\/p>\n

1. April 1 \u2013 <\/strong>Oil prices rose following comments on Iran<\/strong><\/p>\n

Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding heightened tensions involving Iran contributed to increased volatility in energy markets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rose approximately 14 per cent following the announcement.<\/span> Crude oil prices<\/a><\/p>\n

2. April 2\u2013 <\/strong>Canada\u2019s trade deficit widened<\/strong><\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s merchandise trade deficit widened from $4.2 billion in January to $5.7 billion in February. Canada\u2019s trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to $1.7 billion in February from $4.9 billion in January.\u00a0<\/span> StatsCan release<\/a><\/p>\n

3. April 2 \u2013 <\/strong>U.S. labour market showed improvement<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Bureau of Labor Statistics\u2019 Employment Situation Summary<\/a> reported that 178,000 jobs were added in March, following a decline of 133,000 jobs in February and exceeding analyst expectations. The unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 per cent. CNBC and jobs<\/a><\/p>\n

4. April 9 \u2013 <\/strong>U.S. inflation remained above target<\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 2.8 per cent year-over-year, while Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.0 per cent in February. PCE release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CNBC and PCE<\/a><\/p>\n

5. April 10\u2013 <\/strong>Canadian employment data improved modestly<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Canadian economy added approximately 14,000 jobs in March, representing an improvement from February\u2019s loss of 84,000 jobs. Statistics Canada\u2019s Labour Force Survey reported that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7 per cent. CBC and LFS<\/a><\/p>\n

6. April 10 \u2013 <\/strong>U.S. inflation reflected higher energy prices<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9 per cent in March and 3.3 per cent year-over-year. Energy prices were a significant contributor to the increase, with gasoline prices rising 21.2 per cent during the month.\u00a0 BLS and CPI<\/a><\/p>\n

7. April 17 \u2013 <\/strong>Progress in negotiations contributed to lower oil prices<\/strong><\/p>\n

Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran showed signs of progress, contributing to a decline in oil prices. Increased oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz helped push oil prices below $84 per barrel, down approximately 25 per cent from early April highs.<\/p>\n

8. April 20\u2013 <\/strong>Canadian inflation increased<\/strong><\/p>\n

Statistics Canada reported<\/a> that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.4 per cent year-over-year in March, up from 1.8 per cent in February. Higher gasoline prices were a major contributor to the increase.<\/p>\n

9. April 29 \u2013 Central banks held rates unchanged<\/strong><\/p>\n

Canadian, American, and European institutions held their policy interest rates unchanged.<\/p>\n