{"id":2498,"date":"2026-06-04T20:08:28","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T20:08:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=2498"},"modified":"2026-06-04T20:26:08","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T20:26:08","slug":"june-2026-market-update-strong-equity-gains-oil-volatility-and-persistent-inflation-signals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2026\/06\/04\/june-2026-market-update-strong-equity-gains-oil-volatility-and-persistent-inflation-signals\/","title":{"rendered":"June 2026 Market Update \u2013 Strong Equity Gains, Oil Volatility, and Persistent Inflation Signals"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Month in the Markets: May 1 – 29, 2026<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Index returns based on index value (source: Bloomberg\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>, MSCI\u00a0https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis. Price returns are reflected)<\/p>\n

What happened in May?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Just prior to the start of May, the Bank of Canada, the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank all maintained their policy interest rates as inflationary pressures associated with higher energy prices continued to emerge. Markets have generally been anticipating potential interest rate reductions, and higher interest rates can create headwinds for economic growth and equity markets. Despite this backdrop, equity markets delivered strong gains during the month.<\/p>\n

Investor optimism surrounding a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East contributed to stronger North American equity market performance. During the final two weeks of May, oil prices declined approximately 17 percent while major equity indexes reached new record highs. Strong first-quarter earnings results from many S&P 500 companies also supported market performance.<\/p>\n

Gold and oil prices moved in opposite directions as negotiations related to Middle East tensions progressed. Expectations for increased oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz contributed to a decline of approximately $18 USD per barrel in benchmark oil prices during the final two weeks of May.<\/p>\n

What’s ahead for June and beyond?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Central banks have indicated that recent increases in inflation may delay potential interest rate cuts. The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are next scheduled to announce interest rate decisions on June 10 and June 17, respectively.<\/p>\n

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain an important factor influencing energy markets, inflation expectations, and overall investor sentiment. Elevated oil prices could continue to place upward pressure on inflation if supply disruptions persist.<\/p>\n

Close attention to the U.S.\/Iran war and its effect on global oil prices, local inflation and interest rates will provide a measure of understanding for the trajectory of equity portfolios.\u00a0 On June 1, Iran suspended negotiations with the U.S. based on cease-fire violations and Israel\u2019s continued attacks on Lebanon.\u00a0 Iran has vowed to fully block the Strait of Hormuz.\u00a0 Immediately following Iran\u2019s announcement, the price of oil jumped 7 percent.\u00a0 It is unlikely that any further negotiations will be straightforward and will likely lead to additional volatility in markets.<\/p>\n

Events that influenced markets in May included:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(source: Bloomberg\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets <\/a>and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/p>\n

\u00a01. <\/strong>May 8 \u2013 S&P 500 delivered strong revenue and earnings growth<\/strong><\/p>\n

Much of the increasing value of the S&P 500 can be attributed to a solid earnings season.\u00a0 89 percent of companies have reported, and 84 percent of them have reported a positive earnings-per-share surprise and 80 percent have reported a positive revenue surprise.\u00a0 Compared to one year ago, the blended earnings growth rate is 27.7 percent, the highest growth rate for quarterly earnings in nearly five years. FactSet Earnings Insight<\/a><\/p>\n

2. May 8 \u2013 U.S. employment increased and Canadian jobs declined<\/strong><\/p>\n

American nonfarm employment moved up by 115,000 in April and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent.\u00a0 It was only the second consecutive monthly increase over the last year.\u00a0 \u201cJob gains occurred in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade.\u00a0 Federal government employment continued to decline\u201d according to the Employment Situation Summary<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Canadian employment and the employment rate fell slightly in April.\u00a0 The economy lost 18,000 jobs, and the employment rate dropped 0.1 percent to 60.5 percent.\u00a0 In March, 14,000 jobs were added, however 112,000 jobs have been lost so far in 2026.\u00a0 The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percent to 6.9 percent.\u00a0 Full-time employment fell 47,000, while part-time employment edged up by 29,000.\u00a0 StatsCan release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CBC and jobs<\/a><\/p>\n

3. May 12 \u2013 U.S. inflation grew almost 4 percent over the last year<\/strong><\/p>\n

After rising 0.9 percent in March, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose again in April by 0.6 percent.\u00a0 Nearly half of the increase in month-to-month inflation is attributed to the rising price of energy.\u00a0 Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.8 percent.\u00a0 The year-over-year inflation rate in March was 3.3 percent.\u00a0 The energy index increased 17.9 percent for the 12 months ending April, and the food index has increased 3.2 percent over the last year. \u00a0BLS release<\/a>\u00a0 CNBC and CPI<\/a><\/p>\n

4. May 13 \u2013 Bank of Canada highlighted risks related to tariffs and geopolitical developments<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Bank of Canada released its Summary of deliberations<\/a> from its interest rate announcement of April 29 when it left interest rates unchanged.\u00a0 Broadly, the Bank highlighted geopolitical developments and energy prices as factors that could influence inflation, economic growth, and employment trends. The Summary of deliberations noted that the outlook for growth and inflation remains highly dependent on developments in global trade and energy markets.\u00a0 The \u201coutlook for growth and inflation in Canada was highly conditional on US tariffs remaining unchanged and on lower oil prices, which would depend on developments in the war in the Middle East.\u201d<\/p>\n

5. May 13 \u2013 U.S. producer inflation continued to increase<\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), representing wholesale, not consumer prices, rose 1.4 percent in April, up from a 0.7 percent increase in March.\u00a0 On a year-over-year basis the PPI rose 6.0 percent, the largest increase since December 2022.\u00a0 BLS PPI release<\/a><\/p>\n

6. May 19 \u2013 Canadian consumer prices moved further above target<\/strong><\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.8 percent on a year-over-year basis in April, up from March\u2019s increase of 2.4 percent.\u00a0 Energy prices, which have risen 19.2 percent over the past year, drove much of the increase.\u00a0 Additionally, one year ago, the consumer carbon tax was removed, and as of April that effect no longer reduces the result of the consumer inflation calculation.\u00a0 When gasoline is excluded, the CPI rose 2.0 percent in April, down from 2.2 percent in March.\u00a0\u00a0 StatsCan CPI release<\/a><\/p>\n

7. May 20 \u2013 Fed released its meeting minutes from latest \u201chold\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve released meeting minutes from its interest rate decision of April 29.\u00a0 Committee members discussed maintaining rates at their current levels longer than previous predictions and suggested that raising rates may be necessary if inflation remains above its 2 percent target.\u00a0 Equity markets remained resilient despite discussion of a potentially longer period of restrictive monetary policy.\u00a0 Fed minutes<\/a><\/p>\n

8. May 21 \u2013 Magnificent 7 remained significant contributors to S&P 500 performance<\/strong><\/p>\n

Much of the performance success of the S&P 500 can be attributed to the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla) who reported earnings growth of 63.2 percent in the first quarter versus 17.4 percent for the other 493 companies.\u00a0 The Magnificent 7 comprise only about 35 percent of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 but continue to remain a significant contributor to overall index performance. FactSet Earnings Insight<\/a>\u00a0 Mag 7 market cap<\/a><\/p>\n

9. May 28 \u2013 <\/strong>U.S. consumer inflation continued to increase<\/strong><\/p>\n

U.S. consumer inflation continued to trend higher according to the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.\u00a0 In April, the index increased 0.4 percent, excluding food and energy. Core PCE rose 0.2 percent.\u00a0 For the same month one year ago, the PCE price index increased 3.8 percent.\u00a0 Excluding food and energy, the PCE rose 3.3 percent compared to one year ago.\u00a0 Consumer inflation was last at this year-over-year level in November 2023.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 BEA PCE release<\/a>\u00a0 CNBC and PCE<\/a><\/p>\n

10. May 28\u2013 American GDP slowed after revised estimate<\/strong><\/p>\n

For the first quarter of this year, the advance estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been revised downward to an annual growth rate of 1.6 percent.\u00a0 BEA GDP release<\/a><\/p>\n

11. May 29 \u2013 <\/strong>Canadian GDP reflects continued economic softness<\/strong><\/p>\n

Canadian Gross Domestic Product<\/a> (GDP) remained near the threshold commonly associated with a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of declining economic growth. In the first quarter of 2026, GDP declined 0.1 percent following a 1.0 percent annualized contraction in the fourth quarter of 2025.\u00a0 CBC and GDP<\/a><\/p>\n

Click To View PDF<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Just prior to the start of May, the Bank of Canada, the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank all maintained their policy interest rates as inflationary pressures associated with higher energy prices continued to emerge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":155,"featured_media":2503,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"\nJune 2026 Market Update \u2013 Strong Equity Gains, Oil Volatility, and Persistent Inflation Signals - Wagner Investment Management Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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