{"id":2576,"date":"2026-08-06T18:51:57","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T18:51:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=2576"},"modified":"2026-08-07T16:27:19","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T16:27:19","slug":"middle-east-uncertainty-central-bank-caution-and-resilient-economic-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2026\/08\/06\/middle-east-uncertainty-central-bank-caution-and-resilient-economic-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"July 2026 Market Update \u2013 Middle East Uncertainty, Central Bank Caution, and Resilient Economic Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Month in the Markets: July 1-31, 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Index returns based on index value (source: Bloomberg <\/span>https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>, MSCI <\/span>https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis.\u00a0 Price returns are reflected)<\/span><\/p>\n

What happened in July?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remained an important influence on global markets during July. Renewed military activity involving the United States and Iran contributed to continued uncertainty, while developments surrounding shipping routes and energy infrastructure kept oil markets particularly sensitive to changing events.
\nOil prices experienced renewed volatility throughout the month, rising following heightened tensions in early July before easing later in the month as markets responded to changing geopolitical developments. Despite the late-month decline, oil prices finished July more than 20 per cent above their levels at the end of February, reflecting the ongoing impact of geopolitical risk on global energy markets.<\/p>\n

While geopolitical developments remained the primary focus for investors, economic data and central bank decisions continued to shape expectations for inflation and interest rates. The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve both maintained their policy interest rates during July, while inflation data suggested that price pressures remain above central bank targets despite some moderation from recent highs.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

What\u2019s ahead for August and beyond?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East are expected to remain an important influence on energy markets, inflation expectations and investor sentiment. Although oil prices have moderated from their recent highs, sustained increases in energy costs could continue to influence inflation readings and the outlook for monetary policy.<\/p>\n

Investors will also be closely watching upcoming inflation, employment, and economic growth data for further indications of how central banks may respond in the months ahead. Recent market expectations have shifted toward the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve could maintain higher interest rates for longer if inflation remains above its target.<\/p>\n

As always, economic fundamentals including inflation, employment, interest rates, gross domestic product growth, and corporate earnings, together with geopolitical developments, will continue to shape market conditions and investor sentiment.<\/p>\n

Events that influenced markets in July included:<\/strong>\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(source: Bloomberg <\/span>https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/span><\/p>\n

1. June 30 \u2013 The growing Canadian economy led us into July<\/strong><\/p>\n

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.5 per cent in April, after contracting 0.1 per cent in March, on strength in both goods-producing (1.2 per cent) and services-producing industries (+0.3 per cent). The sectors driving growth were mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, the public sector, and transportation and warehousing.\u00a0 StatsCan GDP release<\/a><\/p>\n

2. July 2 \u2013 U.S. jobs grew modestly<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to the U.S. Employment Situation Summary<\/a>, total nonfarm employment grew by 57,000 in June. Employment gains were led by professional and business services (+36,000), social assistance (+25,000), and health care (+22,000).\u00a0 CNBC and EmpSit<\/a><\/p>\n

3. July 7 \u2013 Canada\u2019s trade surplus grew almost 25 per cent and U.S. trade deficit jumped in May<\/strong><\/p>\n

The merchandise trade surplus widened to $4.2 billion in May from $3.4 billion in April as exports grew more than imports. It was the third consecutive month with a trade surplus.\u00a0 StatsCan release<\/a><\/p>\n

The U.S. trade deficit widened to $77.6 billion in May, up from $54.6 billion in April, a 42 per cent increase. The deficit grew as exports from the U.S. fell 3.2 per cent and imports to the U.S. increased 3.3 per cent, which accounted for the widening, net-negative trade gap.\u00a0 BEA trade release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CNBC<\/a><\/p>\n

4. July 8 \u2013 Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions increased market uncertainty<\/strong><\/p>\n

Following renewed military activity between the United States and Iran, President Donald Trump announced that the ceasefire had ended. Diplomatic communications between the two countries reportedly continued despite the renewed conflict.\u00a0\u00a0 Politico and ceasefire<\/a><\/p>\n

5. July 10 \u2013 Canadian jobs and unemployment rate improved slightly in June<\/strong><\/p>\n

StatsCan released its Labour Force Survey<\/a> for June that showed employment increased slightly, up 18,000, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5 per cent.<\/p>\n

Employment increased among youth and core aged workers, while employment among older Canadians declined.<\/p>\n

6. July 14 \u2013 U.S. inflation moderated in June but remained above the U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s target<\/strong><\/p>\n

On a month-over-month basis, U.S. inflation moderated during June. The Consumer Price Index decreased 0.4 per cent in June after rising 0.5 per cent in May. On an annual basis, it has slowed. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.5 per cent. In May, the year-over-year consumer inflation rate was 4.2 per cent. Lower energy prices were a significant contributor to the moderation in headline inflation. \u00a0BLS release<\/a>\u00a0 CNBC and CPI<\/a><\/p>\n

7. July 15 \u2013 Bank of Canada held rates unchanged and released its Monetary Policy Report<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25 per cent, the Bank Rate at 2.5 per cent and the deposit rate at 2.20 per cent. The rates were last changed on October 29, 2025, when they were lowered to their current levels, and have remained unchanged after six subsequent interest rate decisions. In its accompanying statement, the Bank cited higher oil prices, slower global economic growth, uneven Canadian GDP growth, resilient equity markets, higher U.S. bond yields, solid consumer spending and elevated inflation as important factors influencing its outlook.<\/p>\n

The Bank of Canada also released its Monetary Policy Report<\/a> (MPR) that reiterated the situation described above. The Monetary Policy Report also noted that Canada’s trade relationship with the United States and developments in the Middle East remain two of the most significant risks to the inflation outlook. BoC announcement<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CBC and Boc<\/a><\/p>\n

8. July 20 \u2013 Canadian inflation eased in June<\/strong><\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s Consumer Price Index increased 2.8 per cent in June on a year-over-year basis after May\u2019s reading of 3.2 per cent. Excluding gasoline from the inflation calculations, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June and May was unchanged at 2.2 per cent.\u00a0 StatsCan CPI release<\/a><\/p>\n

9. July 29 \u2013 U.S. Federal Reserve maintained policy rates<\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. Federal Reserve held its federal funds rate steady in a range of 3.5 to 3.75 per cent. While labour market conditions remained relatively stable, three of the twelve voting members supported an increase in the policy interest rate.\u00a0 Fed announcement<\/a>\u00a0 CNBC and Fed<\/a><\/p>\n

10. July 30 \u2013 U.S. inflation remained above target while GDP growth moderated<\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) has risen 3.7 per cent compared with June 2025. Excluding food and energy, Core PCE, rose 3.3 per cent. Both headline and core inflation remained above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target. \u00a0PCE release<\/a><\/p>\n

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 1.5 per cent on an annualized basis in the second quarter, which is a slow-down compared to Q1 2026. GDP release<\/a><\/p>\n

11. July 31 \u2013 Canadian economic growth continued to improve<\/strong><\/p>\n

In Canada, GDP grew 0.3 per cent in May, the second consecutive month of growth as both goods and services industries expanded. The increase was led by mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction for the last two months. The government, construction, real estate, rental and leasing, manufacturing, finance and insurance, transportation, and warehousing were among the sectors contributing to economic growth.\u00a0 StatsCan GDP release<\/a><\/p>\n

Click to view PDF<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What happened in July? Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remained an important influence on global markets during July. Renewed military activity involving the United States and Iran contributed to continued uncertainty, while developments surrounding shipping routes and energy infrastructure kept oil markets particularly sensitive to changing events. Oil prices experienced renewed volatility throughout the month, rising following heightened tensions in early July before easing later in the month as markets responded to changing geopolitical developments. Despite the late-month decline, oil prices finished July more than 20 per cent above their levels at the end of February, reflecting the ongoing impact of geopolitical risk on global energy markets. While geopolitical developments remained the primary focus for investors, economic data and central bank decisions continued to shape expectations for inflation and interest rates. The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve both maintained their policy interest rates during July, while inflation data suggested that price pressures remain above central bank targets despite some moderation from recent highs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":155,"featured_media":2578,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"\nJuly 2026 Market Update \u2013 Middle East Uncertainty, Central Bank Caution, and Resilient Economic Growth - Wagner Investment Management Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What happened in July? Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remained an important influence on global markets during July. Renewed military activity involving the United States and Iran contributed to continued uncertainty, while developments surrounding shipping routes and energy infrastructure kept oil markets particularly sensitive to changing events. Oil prices experienced renewed volatility throughout the month, rising following heightened tensions in early July before easing later in the month as markets responded to changing geopolitical developments. Despite the late-month decline, oil prices finished July more than 20 per cent above their levels at the end of February, reflecting the ongoing impact of geopolitical risk on global energy markets. While geopolitical developments remained the primary focus for investors, economic data and central bank decisions continued to shape expectations for inflation and interest rates. 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Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remained an important influence on global markets during July. Renewed military activity involving the United States and Iran contributed to continued uncertainty, while developments surrounding shipping routes and energy infrastructure kept oil markets particularly sensitive to changing events. Oil prices experienced renewed volatility throughout the month, rising following heightened tensions in early July before easing later in the month as markets responded to changing geopolitical developments. Despite the late-month decline, oil prices finished July more than 20 per cent above their levels at the end of February, reflecting the ongoing impact of geopolitical risk on global energy markets. While geopolitical developments remained the primary focus for investors, economic data and central bank decisions continued to shape expectations for inflation and interest rates. 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Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remained an important influence on global markets during July. Renewed military activity involving the United States and Iran contributed to continued uncertainty, while developments surrounding shipping routes and energy infrastructure kept oil markets particularly sensitive to changing events. Oil prices experienced renewed volatility throughout the month, rising following heightened tensions in early July before easing later in the month as markets responded to changing geopolitical developments. Despite the late-month decline, oil prices finished July more than 20 per cent above their levels at the end of February, reflecting the ongoing impact of geopolitical risk on global energy markets. While geopolitical developments remained the primary focus for investors, economic data and central bank decisions continued to shape expectations for inflation and interest rates. The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve both maintained their policy interest rates during July, while inflation data suggested that price pressures remain above central bank targets despite some moderation from recent highs.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2026\/08\/06\/middle-east-uncertainty-central-bank-caution-and-resilient-economic-growth\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"July 2026 Market Update \u2013 Middle East Uncertainty, Central Bank Caution, and Resilient Economic Growth - Wagner Investment Management Team","og_description":"What happened in July? Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remained an important influence on global markets during July. Renewed military activity involving the United States and Iran contributed to continued uncertainty, while developments surrounding shipping routes and energy infrastructure kept oil markets particularly sensitive to changing events. Oil prices experienced renewed volatility throughout the month, rising following heightened tensions in early July before easing later in the month as markets responded to changing geopolitical developments. Despite the late-month decline, oil prices finished July more than 20 per cent above their levels at the end of February, reflecting the ongoing impact of geopolitical risk on global energy markets. While geopolitical developments remained the primary focus for investors, economic data and central bank decisions continued to shape expectations for inflation and interest rates. 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