{"id":815,"date":"2022-12-05T18:31:37","date_gmt":"2022-12-05T18:31:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=815"},"modified":"2024-05-10T17:19:04","modified_gmt":"2024-05-10T17:19:04","slug":"last-month-in-the-markets-november-1st-30th-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2022\/12\/05\/last-month-in-the-markets-november-1st-30th-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Last Month in the Markets \u2013 November 1st \u2013 30th, 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Month in the Markets \u2013 November 1st<\/sup> \u2013 30th<\/sup>, 2022<\/h4>\n

\"Last<\/p>\n

(source: Bloomberg <\/span>https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>, MSCI <\/span>https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

What happened in November?<\/h4>\n

Overall, the results for investors were largely positive last month.\u00a0 The major Canadian and American equity indexes rose 4.4 to 5.7%, and the global All Country World Index (ACWI) jumped 7.6%.\u00a0 The Canadian dollar gained more than a cent as many snowbirds prepare for their annual winter migration for warmer weather in the United States.\u00a0 The price of oil fell, which will assist consumers (and snowbirds who will be driving 2,000 kilometres or more to reach their winter havens).\u00a0 Gold\u2019s lustre as a safe haven continued, and although bond yields were down slightly for the month, they have doubled in 2022.<\/p>\n

Three notable events were primary triggers for broad moves in North American equity markets last month.\u00a0 For November, and due to the tight linkage of the Canadian economy to the American economy, the major events that raised and lowered the TSX and the U.S. indexes were from south of our border.<\/p>\n

\"Equities
(source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
    \n
  1. November 2nd<\/sup> \u2013 Federal Reserve interest rate decision<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The question was not whether an increase would occur, but the size of it and the implications for future increases were the focus of speculation.\u00a0 Chair, Jerome Powell, announced a 75-basis point (0.75%) interest rate increase to extend the monetary policy battle against inflation. Federal Reserve release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CNBC article<\/a><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. November 10th<\/sup> \u2013 U.S. Consumer Price Index released<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      U.S. consumer inflation generated a rebound from recent losses.\u00a0 Price increases were below expectations at 0.4% for October and 7.7% on a year-over-year basis.\u00a0 The monthly increase repeated September\u2019s level while annual inflation fell to its lowest level since January, and 1.5% below June\u2019s recent peak.<\/p>\n

      Investors believe that the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate hikes have begun to slow inflation.\u00a0 Consequently, the further belief is that smaller interest rate increases will be required in the future.\u00a0 Markets reacted with optimism when North American equity indexes posted their best trading day since 2020 by jumping 3.5 to 7.5%. \u00a0BLS CPI release<\/a>\u00a0 CNBC CPI analysis<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CNN rate\/CPI reporting<\/a><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. November 30th<\/sup> \u2013 Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, speaks<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Equity markets have been seeking indications that future interest rate increases could be lowered, and eventually slowed and then reversed.\u00a0 After several years of pro-business and pro-expansion interest rates, the recent rate rises have weighed heavily on domestic and global stock prices.<\/p>\n

        The indication from Chair Powell caused U.S. indexes to jump 3-4% on the last day of the month.\u00a0 Canada\u2019s TSX followed the positive example set by the American indexes by moving up nearly 1%.\u00a0 Transcript of Powell Speech<\/a> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NYTimes analysis<\/a><\/p>\n

        Other factors have influence over markets (Covid resurgence in China and elsewhere, geopolitical issues like Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine, supply chain disruptions from both Covid and hostilities, etc.), but the primary drivers have been the rate of inflation and the reaction of central banks to it.<\/p>\n

        What\u2019s ahead for December and beyond?<\/h4>\n

        The Federal Reserve\u2019s next opportunity to raise interest rates will occur on December 14th<\/sup>, which is one week after the Bank of Canada\u2019s next scheduled announcement.\u00a0 Both actions will affect North American investors, with Canadian equities feeling the effects of both central banks\u2019 actions, while American stocks will be most affected by their domestic monetary policy.<\/p>\n

        On December 2nd<\/sup> Canadian and U.S. jobs data for November will be released, and the expected softening of labour markets in both countries supports the slowing of interest rate increases.\u00a0 Canadian jobs are expected to be 5,000, down from 108,000 in the prior month, and U.S. jobs are predicted at 200,000, down from 261,000.\u00a0 During the first seven months of 2022 about 450,000 jobs were created each month.\u00a0 Bloomberg Economic Calendar<\/a><\/p>\n

        The course of the pandemic and economic recovery that initiated much of the job growth in the first half of 2022 will continue to influence economic conditions.\u00a0 Powell also indicated in his speech the belief that a lag occurs before actions take effect and \u201cit makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down\u201d.\u00a0 Many indicators are beginning to suggest the time for moderating is approaching.<\/p>\n

         <\/p>\n

        Wagner Investment Management Team<\/em> contributors: Susyn Wagner & Karen Routledge<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

        The information contained herein has been provided for information purposes only.\u00a0 The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable.\u00a0 Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment.\u00a0 The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice.\u00a0 Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual\u2019s objectives and risk tolerance.\u00a0 This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. \u00a0Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. (WAPW) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WAPW assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.\u00a0 Before acting on any of the above, please contact your financial advisor.<\/p>\n

        \u00a9 2022, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc.\u00a0 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.\u00a0 NO USE OR REPRODUCTION WITHOUT PERMISSION.<\/p>\n

        www.wellington-altus.ca<\/a><\/p>\n

        If you no longer wish to receive commercial electronic messages from Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc., please send an email to unsubscribe@wprivate.ca<\/a><\/p>\n

        \n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Three notable events were primary triggers for broad moves in North American equity markets last month. For November, and due to the tight linkage of the Canadian economy to the American economy, the major events that raised and lowered the TSX and the U.S. indexes were from south of our border.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":155,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"\nLast Month in the Markets \u2013 November 1st \u2013 30th, 2022 - Wagner Investment Management Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2022\/12\/05\/last-month-in-the-markets-november-1st-30th-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Last Month in the Markets \u2013 November 1st \u2013 30th, 2022 - Wagner Investment Management Team\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Three notable events were primary triggers for broad moves in North American equity markets last month. 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