{"id":846,"date":"2023-01-06T19:54:29","date_gmt":"2023-01-06T19:54:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=846"},"modified":"2024-05-10T17:18:47","modified_gmt":"2024-05-10T17:18:47","slug":"last-year-in-the-markets-a-trying-time-for-canadian-investors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2023\/01\/06\/last-year-in-the-markets-a-trying-time-for-canadian-investors\/","title":{"rendered":"Last Year In The Markets \u2013 A Trying Time For Canadian Investors"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><strong>Last Year in the Markets \u2013 January 3<sup>rd<\/sup> to December 30<sup>th<\/sup>, 2022<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-847 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/01\/Last-Year-in-the-Markets-2022.png\" alt=\"Last Year in the Markets 2022\" width=\"717\" height=\"169\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/01\/Last-Year-in-the-Markets-2022.png 717w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/01\/Last-Year-in-the-Markets-2022-300x71.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 717px) 100vw, 717px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>What happened in 2022?<\/h3>\n<p>Overall, last year was a trying time for almost every Canadian investor.\u00a0 Several factors contributed to the turmoil and difficulty that affected every asset class and investor at some point during the last 12 months.\u00a0\u00a0 Although a single, isolated event rarely occurs politically, economically, socially, or medically, a number of instances in 2022 can be viewed as turning points, especially for the major North American equity indexes.<\/p>\n<p>When markets changed directions last year, the frequent causes were economic announcements or the anticipation of these announcements on inflation, employment, economic output, monetary policy, recession, and geopolitical issues.\u00a0 Each of these factors, and many others, play into investor sentiment for the future, and influence or drive broad market moves.<\/p>\n<p>In addition to the beginning and end points of 2022 (#\u2019s 1 and 10, below), the equity markets reversed their direction eight significant times (#\u2019s 2 through 9).\u00a0 The observed changes can be attributed to the linkages between inflation, interest rates, jobs, and economic output in the U.S.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-848 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/01\/Equities-2022.png\" alt=\"Equities 2022\" width=\"559\" height=\"386\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/01\/Equities-2022.png 559w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/01\/Equities-2022-300x207.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px\" \/><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>The S&amp;P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ, peaked on the first trading day of the year, January 4<sup>th<\/sup>, and dropped by approximately 19%, 9% and 33%, respectively, by the end of the year. The TSX, helped by its concentration on commodities, delayed its peak until late March and early April and still fell by nearly 9% in 2022. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\">https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24<sup>th<\/sup>, providing foundation for the economic and humanitarian tragedy felt throughout the year. January 1<sup>st<\/sup> was the 312<sup>th<\/sup> day of war.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/series\/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance?page=16\">The Guardian&#8217;s daily war summary<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The primary inflation indicator for the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for February was released at the end of March. Consumer prices were rising at an annual rate of 6.4%, a level not seen in more than 40 years. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2022\/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2022#:~:text=The%20PCE%20price%20index%20for,percent%20from%20one%20year%20ago\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BEA CPI<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>April\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged downward providing lift to equity markets as the year-over-year inflation rate fell to 8.3% from 8.5% in March. Prices rose 0.3% in April. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/archives\/cpi_05112022.htm\">BLS CPI<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The anticipation for the Fed\u2019s interest rate announcement on June 15<sup>th<\/sup> was negative, and when May\u2019s rising inflation, 8.6% year-over-year, was announced the markets began pricing-in a large increase to the federal funds rate, which eventually was 75 basis-points. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/archives\/cpi_06102022.htm\">BLS May inflation<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/monetary20220615a1.pdf\">Federal Reserve announcement<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The release of U.S. employment data provided some respite from the fears of recession as the American economy continued to generate jobs at a robust pace. 372,000 jobs were created in June 2022 and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6%.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/archives\/empsit_07082022.htm\">BLS employment situation<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The minutes of the Federal Reserve\u2019s Federal Open Market Committee were released. The meeting notes indicated that members of the committee believe that interest rates must be much higher than originally projected to reduce inflation to acceptable levels.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/fomcminutes20220615.pdf\">FOMC Minutes from June meeting<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Again, consumer inflation exceeded expectations and remains well above the Fed\u2019s target of 2%, suggesting that rates will be increased substantially again, potentially triggering a recession. The CPI for September, released on October 13<sup>th<\/sup>, sat at 8.2% on a year-over-year basis.\u00a0 Prices rose 0.4% in September compared with an increase of 0.1% in August.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/archives\/cpi_10132022.htm\">BLS September inflation<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The Federal Reserve\u2019s FOMC raises benchmark interest rates again by 50 basis-points. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/monetary20221214a1.pdf\">Federal Reserve press release<\/a><\/li>\n<li>After two consecutive years of annual gains <strong><em>during a pandemic<\/em><\/strong> the major indices lost value in 2022. This is merely context for each investor\u2019s individual portfolio performance.\u00a0 If your investment strategy delivers positive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/a\/alpha.asp#:~:text=Alpha%20(%CE%B1)%20is%20a%20term,to%20systematically%20earn%20returns%20that\">alpha<\/a>, which is a return that exceeds the overall market, most investors would consider it a successful year.\u00a0 However, 2022 continued the pattern of 2020 and 2021 of increased levels of uncertainty, volatility, and risk.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Many other factors beyond \u201calpha\u201d should be included in a robust analysis of portfolio performance, and simply measuring top-line performance in a \u201clet\u2019s earn as much as possible\u201d mindset can lead to disappointment.\u00a0 Focusing solely on top-line performance reduces emphasis on volatility and ignores a goals-based approach to managing risk versus reward.<\/p>\n<p>An example supporting a managed approach that includes diversification is the performance of a select number of stocks that had previously enjoyed excellent returns.\u00a0 As of Dec. 28 2022, the S&amp;P 500 had lost over $9 Trillion in total value.\u00a0 More than half of that loss \u2013 $4.7 Trillion \u2013 was due to the contribution of only six stocks.\u00a0 If an investor had placed all their holdings evenly across these six stocks at the start of their year and did not adjust, they would have lost almost 48% of their balance.\u00a0 The entire S&amp;P 500 index lost 19%.\u00a0 The \u201calpha\u201d for this highly concentrated portfolio is <strong><em>negative 29%.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-849 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/01\/Market-Capital-Erased-2022.png\" alt=\"Market Capital Erased 2022\" width=\"431\" height=\"275\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/01\/Market-Capital-Erased-2022.png 422w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/01\/Market-Capital-Erased-2022-300x191.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 431px) 100vw, 431px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>For most investors this information regarding very narrow holdings provides little solace but could be a catalyst for action to re-examine asset mix (equities vs fixed income), growth vs value stocks, industry, sector, and geographical diversification, for both individual stocks and funds.<\/p>\n<h3>What\u2019s ahead for January and beyond in 2023?<\/h3>\n<p>In the near, medium, and longer-term, the effects of central bank monetary policy on inflation, employment and prospects of further action will guide equity markets.\u00a0 The terminology that everyone will become more acquainted with in 2023 will include \u201crestrictive monetary policy\u201d, \u201cfiltering through\u201d, \u201csoft landing\u201d and \u201crecession\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The purpose of increasing interest rates is to slow demand for goods and services because financed purchases have become more expensive than regular purchases.\u00a0 Businesses and consumers reduce their overall consumption due to higher prices, and reduced demand removes upward price pressures.\u00a0 If the reduction of consumption is substantial and prolonged a recession occurs.<\/p>\n<p>The predictions from both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve are that interest rate increases will slow, if not cease.\u00a0 Once inflation responds to monetary policy action, it is anticipated that those monetary measures (interest rates and quantitative tightening) will be maintained until further adjustments become necessary.<\/p>\n<p>Once the trajectory of interest rates is better understood, the nature of markets will be clearer.\u00a0 A review of each investor\u2019s unique situation and goals to anticipate this uncertainty is the starting point for a renewed investment plan.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Wagner Investment Management Team<\/em> <em>contributors: Susyn Wagner &amp; Karen Routledge<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The information contained herein has been provided for information purposes only.\u00a0 The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable.\u00a0 Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment.\u00a0 The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice.\u00a0 Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual\u2019s objectives and risk tolerance.\u00a0 This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. \u00a0Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. (WAPW) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WAPW assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.\u00a0 Before acting on any of the above, please contact your financial advisor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u00a9 2022, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc.\u00a0 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.\u00a0 NO USE OR REPRODUCTION WITHOUT PERMISSION.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.wellington-altus.ca\">www.wellington-altus.ca<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Overall, last year was a trying time for almost every Canadian investor.\u00a0 Several factors contributed to the turmoil and difficulty that affected every asset class and investor at some point during the last 12 months.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":155,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Last Year In The Markets \u2013 A Trying Time For Canadian Investors - Wagner Investment Management Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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