{"id":892,"date":"2023-02-03T17:46:44","date_gmt":"2023-02-03T17:46:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=892"},"modified":"2024-05-10T17:18:24","modified_gmt":"2024-05-10T17:18:24","slug":"last-month-in-the-markets-a-strong-start-for-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2023\/02\/03\/last-month-in-the-markets-a-strong-start-for-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Last Month in the Markets \u2013 A Strong Start for 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5>Last Month in the Markets \u2013 January 3<sup>rd<\/sup> to 31<sup>st<\/sup>, 2022<\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-893 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/02\/Picture1-300x70.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"848\" height=\"198\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/02\/Picture1-300x70.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/02\/Picture1.png 650w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 848px) 100vw, 848px\" \/><em><br \/>\n(source: Bloomberg <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>,<br \/>\n<\/em><em>MSCI <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc.analysis)<\/em><\/p>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>What happened in January?<\/h5>\n<p>Last month proved to be a much better month than most for investors of almost every type.\u00a0 The major equities indexes, where many hold the majority of the assets to fund future retirement, all gained dramatically.\u00a0 The Dow, which <strong><em>only <\/em><\/strong>advanced by 2\u00be% over the course of January, was the laggard.\u00a0 The relatively broad-based TSX and S&amp;P 500 moved ahead seven and six percent, respectively, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ jumped over 10%.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-898\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/02\/Picture2-300x175.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/02\/Picture2-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2023\/02\/Picture2.png 436w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 659px) 100vw, 659px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (source: Bloomberg <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a> and ARG Inc.analysis)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Reducing the anxiety for investors was the consistent and repeated daily increases.\u00a0 Only a few days during January failed to deliver positive gains, and each of those were associated with legislative and economic events emanating from the United States:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>January began with the U.S. House of Representatives unable to elect a Republican Speaker of the House.\u00a0 The negotiations and debate continued for several days and were more prolonged than any Speaker\u2019s election in more than a century and a half.\u00a0 Eventually, Kevin McCarthy prevailed, and then the speculation that he had ceded too much power to achieve the position began in earnest.\n<ul>\n<li>Debate regarding the Republicans ability to move the economy forward by cutting taxes also commenced as McCarthy\u2019s tenuous leadership began.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Just after mid-month, equities faltered as the U.S. debt ceiling reached its limit.\u00a0 The Department of the Treasury began utilizing <a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/system\/files\/136\/Description_Extraordinary_Measures-2023_01_19.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">extraordinary measures<\/a> to keep the federal government operating.\u00a0 These included suspending new investment in retirement and healthcare funding for the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the U.S. Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund, sales of State and Local government treasury securities, and reinvestments in the Exchange Stabilization Fund.\n<ul>\n<li>Collectively, the Treasury\u2019s actions provide about five months for the somewhat divided Republicans, who, technically, control the House, and the unified Democrats who stand in opposition.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>The penultimate day of January was negatively affected by the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate announcement on Wednesday, February 1<sup>st<\/sup>.\u00a0 In comments during and since the last monetary policy release, the Fed has steadfastly maintained its commitment to controlling demand-driven inflation.\u00a0 The markets have wavered between accepting economic \u201cgood news\u201d for Gross Domestic Product and jobs at face-value and interpreting \u201cgood news\u201d as fuel to inflation, which will increase the Fed\u2019s resolve.\n<ul>\n<li>Rates are widely expected to increase, and the accompanying commentary will be heavily parsed to understand intentions for additional rate rises. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/02\/01\/central-banks-set-to-signal-interest-rate-glide-path-in-crucial-week.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CNBC and rates<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The distractions of Speaker elections, legislative control and debt ceiling attainment did little to disrupt a very positive month to begin the year for equity investors.<\/p>\n<h5>What\u2019s ahead for February and beyond in 2023?<\/h5>\n<p>The continued reliance on monetary policy as a bellwether for markets and investors monitoring their portfolios is fatiguing.\u00a0 Unfortunately, this situation will continue until inflation is under control and approaching the target inflation rate of 2%.\u00a0\u00a0 The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve expect inflation to fall enough to stabilize and possibly ease rates in 2023 and early 2024.<\/p>\n<p>The policy interest rates in Canada and the U.S. are expected to settle in the range between 4\u00bd and 5\u00bd% to achieve the restrictive economic conditions necessary to arrest price increases.<\/p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve took another step toward controlling inflation on February 1<sup>st<\/sup> by raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.<\/p>\n<p>Once target inflation is achieved, rates will be lowered to the estimated neutral rate of interest which supports full employment while inflation is constant.\u00a0 This represents a situation where interest rates are neither restrictive nor expansionary, and have been estimated at about 2.5% for both Canada and the U.S.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Federal Reserve<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankofcanada.ca\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bank of Canada<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/blog\/up-front\/2018\/10\/22\/the-hutchins-center-explains-the-neutral-rate-of-interest\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Brookings Institute<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/for-fed-the-neutral-rate-is-crucial-and-unknown\/2022\/09\/23\/85cb59aa-3b67-11ed-b8af-0a04e5dc3db6_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">WaPo and Neutral Rates<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong><em><br \/>\nWagner Investment Management Team<\/em> <em>contributors: Susyn Wagner &amp; Karen Routledge<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The information contained herein has been provided for information purposes only. The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable. Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual\u2019s objectives and risk tolerance. This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. (WAPW) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WAPW assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Before acting on any of the above, please contact your financial advisor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u00a9 2023, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc.\u00a0 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.\u00a0 NO USE OR REPRODUCTION WITHOUT PERMISSION.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.wellington-altus.ca\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">www.wellington-altus.ca<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What happened in January?\u00a0Last month proved to be a much better month than most for investors of almost every type.\u00a0 The major equities indexes, where many hold the majority of the assets to fund future retirement, all gained dramatically.\u00a0 The Dow, which only advanced by 2\u00be% over the course of January, was the laggard.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":155,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Last Month in the Markets \u2013 A Strong Start for 2023 - Wagner Investment Management Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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