June Market Insights: The Grand Chessboard
In the complex arena of global finance, as in geopolitics, strategic positioning can be just as crucial as raw power. This insight comes from Polish-American diplomat and political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski in his book The Grand Chessboard, which offers a compelling parallel to the world of investing.
May Market Insights: Out Of Options
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, deeply mindful of Arthur Burns’ missteps and inspired by Paul Volcker’s tenacity, is fully cognisant of the historical significance of his role. I have consistently argued that Powell would benefit from studying William McChesney Martin’s tenure as the first post-Second World War Federal Reserve Chair in the 1950s. Martin adeptly navigated through a period of fiscal dominance, a pattern that is emerging once again.
April Market Insights: Greenspan’s Game Of Thrones
We are at a pivotal moment in history, one that former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan might liken to a historical juncture, where the intertwined narratives obscure the uniqueness of our era. As we contend with a world that echoes the tumult of epics like War and Peace or Game of Thrones, we are in the midst of a “Fourth Turning”—a period of intense demographic, technological, and structural change that recurs approximately every 80 years.
March Market Insights: The Financial Storm Is Coming
It’s All About Timing. Navigating macro investing poses the challenge of not only identifying key events but also timing their occurrence. The hardest part is indeed getting the timing right. With Japan and the United Kingdom in recession, and Germany likely to follow, the global economic landscape is increasingly fraught with challenges.
May Market Insights: A Secret War to Control the Fed?
The Danger of Bowing to Political Pressure Download this article as a PDF. “You are what your record says you are.” — Bill Parcells Author Michael Lewis reminds us of the consequences that can emerge when independent bodies succumb to political pressure. In his latest book, The Premonition, he suggests that the politicization of the […]
March Market Insights by James Thorne
Peak Inflation: Saved by Inertia? There is an aphorism in the medical community that may be fitting to our continuing narrative about the Federal Reserve’s tightening policy: “Don’t just stand there, do nothing.” In medical literature, it’s called “clinical inertia,” reminding us that sometimes stopping and doing nothing before we act can yield the best […]
January Market Insights by James Thorne
The Maradona & Cantillon Effects: 2022 — The Year of The Fed! Will the Maradona Effect be pivotal to the Fed’s monetary policy playbook in 2022? Over 25 years ago, when Diego Maradona overcame five defenders to score one of the most memorable goals in World Cup history, he did it by running virtually in […]
December Market Insights by James Thorne
THE LAW OF THE HAMMER: A VOLCKER SHOCK IN 2022? “It’s burning down the house to roast the pig.” —Robert Solow, Nobel Prize Winner, Economics (1987) Download this article as a PDF. The concept of the “law of the hammer,” attributed to psychologist Abraham Maslow, suggests that humans can often be biased to have an […]
November Market Insights by James Thorne
Economic Squid Games: China’s Enduring Mastery of Survival Download this article as a PDF. “We’ve already come too far to end this now.” – Sang-Woo, Squid Game Squid Game is a dark drama set in Korea that depicts the lengths some individuals will go to in order to try and eliminate their extreme levels of […]
October Market Insights by James Thorne
Stagflation or Change: Crypto & the End of the Petrodollar Download this article as a PDF. “Just follow the money.” – Deep Throat, All the President’s Men In 1972, while Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward were investigating the break-in of the Democratic National Committee at the Watergate office complex, an informant provided the […]