March Market Insights: Fire and Ice – The Fight Between Inflation and Deflation
What’s a More Significant Risk, Inflation or Deflation? “Some say the world will end in fire, some say ice. From what I’ve tasted of desire, I hold with those who favor fire. But if it had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate to know that for destruction, ice is also great and would suffice.” [1] – Robert Frost
February Market Insights: Apocalypse Delayed – The U.S. Debt-Ceiling Debate
What if the U.S. Government Defaults on its Debt? “It’s never paid to bet against America.” – Warren Buffett. If the U.S. was to default on its debt obligations, it would cause investors to flee from U.S. Treasuries, leading to a decrease in confidence in U.S. government debt and the U.S. Dollar (USD) as being the medium of exchange for the global economy.
January Market Insights: The 2023 Market Forecast – The Pause that Refreshes
Throughout 2022, I differed from the consensus on what caused the inflation spike. The conventional view was that wages and aggregate demand of the private sector were the main culprits. I disagreed. My thesis was that the twin supply shocks of COVID-19 and the war, along with the extreme fiscal policy response, caused inflation. I adamantly disagree with the false premise that the inflation we experienced was akin to the 1970’s inflation spike.
November 2022 Market Insights by Dr. James Thorne: Trump, Gridlock And What It Means For Investors In 2023
After the 1994 midterm elections, gridlock was confirmed and inflation fears subsided. The next year, the Fed cut rates, and risk assets appreciated. The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data points to 2023 reversing the inflation shock, interest rate shock, and growing fears of 2022.
September Market Insights: Waiting for Godot
September Market Insights: Waiting for Godot and passing the Peak Sagitta of the Inflation and Rate Expectation Arcs in 2022 Download this article as a PDF. Investors are waiting for their own Godot – certainty about the future. Like Godot, that certainty never comes. Yet, we keep waiting for it, even with a highly levered […]
July Market Insights: The Fed & Its Use of Economic Coercion
This is Not Coin-Flip Policymaking Download this article as a PDF. “Every theory is a self-fulfilling prophecy that orders experience into the framework it provides.” — Ruth Hubbard The old saying “don’t fight the Fed” has been a golden rule in investing that has served investors well for many decades. Yet, today, confidence in the […]
Peak in interest rates are in, pivot to long duration assets: James Thorne
James Thorne, chief market strategist of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, joins BNN Bloomberg for his outlook on the market and why he thinks inflation and rates may be nearing a peak. Click here to watch the video.
May Market Insights: A Secret War to Control the Fed?
The Danger of Bowing to Political Pressure Download this article as a PDF. “You are what your record says you are.” — Bill Parcells Author Michael Lewis reminds us of the consequences that can emerge when independent bodies succumb to political pressure. In his latest book, The Premonition, he suggests that the politicization of the […]
April Market Insights: Detonating a Tactical Financial Nuclear Weapon: Sowing the Seeds of a New Financial World Order?
Detonating a Tactical Financial Nuclear Weapon: Sowing the Seeds of a New Financial World Order? The Ukraine/Russia crisis may mark a historic moment in the evolution of geopolitical balance. While there have been calls for a military response by the West, we should not overlook the significance of the sanctioning of the Russian Central Bank. […]
March Market Insights: Peak Inflation, Saved by Inertia?
Peak Inflation: Saved by Inertia? Download this article as a PDF. “Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?” – Simon & Garfunkel Given the continuing calls by market pundits for 50 basis point (bps) inter-meeting rate hikes — even while the Fed balance sheet is still expanding — or seven rate hikes in 2022 — despite slowing […]