Gold Seal Monthly Review

“The secret of success is to be ready when your opportunity comes.”

– Benjamin Disraeli

Lights, Camera, Algorithm!

Click on the above thumbnail to watch the video

Most of our recent updates have focused on trade, tariffs, and the increasingly entangled dance between fiscal and monetary policy. But this month, we’re taking a step back from all of that-not to ignore those themes, but to shine a light on something equally consequential: the acceleration of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), and how it’s beginning to shape the investment landscape in ways that are both exciting and deeply uncomfortable.

To help make that point, I enlisted a new team member for our June investor video, Sheila Tankledier, our new Gold Seal Financial Group Advisor. If you caught the video update above, you already know: Sheila isn’t real, and neither is Walter Cronkite (at least not the version who broke in to tell you the S&P was “cooked, fam”). Both were built using consumer-level tools and a budget better suited to gas station snacks than video production.

But that was the point. The technology on display wasn’t flawless, but it was functional. At under $100 and an hour and a half of Ryan playing with his new tech toys, the results were enough to fool an untrained eye, and when it comes to generative AI video, it’s clear the ceiling has risen far faster than the floor. With the release of Google’s Veo 3, what was once reserved for special effects studios is now fair game for pranksters, marketers, and anyone with a Wi-Fi connection. We’re no longer asking if this tech will upend communications, we’re now asking how many areas it already has.

From an investment standpoint, this isn’t just about media or security risks. It’s about productivity. Recent research projects over $3 trillion in annual productivity gains across corporate functions, particularly in areas like marketing, customer service, legal review, R&D, and financial operations. And that’s not blue-sky speculation- more than 75% of global knowledge workers reportedly used AI at work in 2024, with nearly half adopting it in just the past six months.

A 1% boost to productivity across one billion global knowledge workers earning an average salary of $50,000 creates $500 billion in new value annually. At a 5% gain, which now feels conservative, that figure jumps to $2.5 trillion. These aren’t fantasy numbers. This is what’s already happening in the margins.

Of course, the headlines haven’t caught up. Most discussions around AI still toggle between utopia and apocalypse, ignoring the more nuanced truth: we are already in the middle of a platform shift as significant as the advent of internet, mobile or cloud computing, and the winners will be those who adapt early. Investors, companies, and governments alike.

This doesn’t mean the risks aren’t real – they are. Misinformation, deepfakes, voice fraud, and IP theft are already colliding with inadequate regulation and public confusion. But as investors, we don’t have the luxury of waiting for the ethical landscape to catch up before we position portfolios. Innovation leads; oversight limps behind.

For our part, we’re focused on companies deploying AI to scale real productivity, not just flash or gimmicks. We continue to favour durable innovators, particularly those that are misunderstood, underappreciated, or insulated from sector-wide drawdowns. The shift is here. And for those still debating whether AI is “real,” the better question might be: how real does it need to be before it’s investable?

Sheila may not be coming back next month (unless by popular request). But the conversation around AI definitely is.

Election’s Over. Now What?

Canadians returned the Liberal Party to power for a fourth time in 2025, handing Prime Minister Mark Carney his first electoral mandate and a third consecutive minority government. Markets barely reacted, which is telling. This was the expected outcome, and if anything, a Liberal majority had already been priced out.

At the start of the year, the narrative had been disruption. But between rising U.S. tariffs and sovereignty posturing out of Washington, the tone shifted fast. The election outcome reflected a preference for stability, with the Liberals introducing a new leader, a revised platform, and a centrist repositioning that marked a clear departure from the Trudeau era.

In seat count, the results are unremarkable. Modest Liberal gains owe more to NDP and Bloc declines than Conservative erosion. In fact, the Conservatives increased their seat count despite a failed campaign, with party leader Pierre Poilievre losing his own riding.

Governing this Parliament won’t be easy. The Liberal-NDP coalition barely clears the majority threshold, and with the NDP only having an interim leader and financially weakened by loss of official party status, there’s limited certainty on how long the arrangement lasts. The Bloc could support legislation on an ad hoc basis, but that’s a far cry from stability. The overlap with Conservative policy priorities, while real, is unlikely to translate into regular cooperation.

From a policy standpoint, the election marks a clear shift away from progressive redistribution and toward economic pragmatism. Whether the Liberals or Conservatives had won, the next government was always going to inherit a more economically focused mandate: boosting productivity, defusing trade tensions and reviving growth. The Liberal version of this plan is tempered but clear:

• Modest tax relief, including $22B for middle-income cuts and $13B in revenue loss from scrapping the capital gains hike
• Partial rollback of the carbon tax (consumer-side only)
• $24B earmarked for housing, $12B for infrastructure, and $18B for defense
• A continued embrace of deficits- now cosmetically separated into operating vs. capital, though debt levels remain unchanged in reality.

While the housing targets are ambitious (and likely overly optimistic), government involvement in residential construction is set to expand. Similarly, infrastructure plans include everything from high-speed rail to port development. Even resource approvals may see streamlining, though more cautiously than the Conservative alternative.

On trade, tone matters. While previous Liberal governments took a confrontational stance with the U.S., early signs suggest a pivot to quieter diplomacy. This is likely a reflection of campaign rhetoric giving way to the reality of tariff escalation. We’ll see how long that restraint lasts.

In sum, the election delivered continuity, not clarity. Canada’s fiscal stance will remain expansionary, minority dynamics will introduce friction, and tariffs, not Parliament, will remain the dominant economic variable in the quarters ahead. For now, investors can take solace in one thing: gridlock rarely moves fast enough to surprise the bond market.

Gold Seal Insights

The Ride Continues: Manitoba or Bust

This month, Brendan Willis and Ryan Archambault are back in the saddle, supported on the road (and in spirit) by Tanya Wilson. After wrapping up Saskatchewan in 2023, the team returns to the exact spot on Highway 16 where they left off, ready to cycle more than 550 kilometers across Manitoba in just four days, finishing at the Ontario border. Wind willing.

Once complete, Brendan will have officially cycled across all of Western Canada—from Victoria, B.C. to the edge of Ontario. The journey doesn’t stop here: over the next few years, we’ll keep riding east, one province at a time (next up: Ontario, gulp).

Why We Ride

This isn’t just about endurance. It’s about impact. Through the Willis Family Foundation, this ride raises funds to support youth and underserved communities across the Okanagan. From sports equipment for young athletes, to educational programs and emergency assistance for families in crisis, every dollar makes a difference, and every contribution goes directly to those who need it most.

Tanya’s Tips:

Insurance Isn’t Always Top of Mind—Until It Is

In recent months, much of the conversation has rightly focused on investment performance and market volatility. But every so often, something comes up that reminds me why insurance, particularly life, critical illness, and disability coverage, remains a core pillar of a solid financial plan.

I was recently reminded through a client situation how quickly life can change. A routine medical concern turned into a serious diagnosis, and suddenly the focus shifted from long-term planning to immediate care, emotional support, and financial clarity.

Critical illness (CI) insurance can be an incredibly powerful tool in these moments. While no one hopes to ever need it, having this kind of protection in place offers a measure of peace in the face of uncertainty.

Here are a few things worth knowing about CI coverage:

• It typically covers a range of 10 to 40 major illnesses or conditions, depending on the insurer and policy.
• If a claim is made for a covered condition, a tax-free lump sum is usually paid to the policyholder—no strings attached.
• Some policies allow a child’s CI coverage to be converted into adult coverage later, without additional medical underwriting.
• Certain plans include a return-of-premium option if no claim is made by a specific age, potentially freeing up funds for education, a home, or other goals.

While insurance may not be as attention-grabbing as market moves, it’s often the foundation that allows a family to focus on what truly matters when the unexpected happens. If you’d like to review your current coverage, or explore what’s available, I’m always happy to help.

Kelowna Polo Classic

June 28 | 11:30am–9:30pm

Gold Seal Financial Group is proud to be a first-time sponsor of the Kelowna Polo Classic, one of the most stylish days on the summer calendar. If you’re in the area (or need a reason to be), we’d love to have you join us field side for a day of sport, socializing, and serious outfit-watching.

Stop by the Gold Seal tent on June 28th and use code GOLDGUEST2025 for 15% off your tickets.

Between the local winery tastings, Lounge cocktails, tasty eats, and this year’s new Paddock Party with live music, there’s no shortage of reasons to make a day of it.

Noteworthy Links

• Canada’s domestic tourism industry could net billions due to U.S. trade war: report
• Businesses are finding a workaround for tariffs — and it’s entirely legal
• Growing federal government expenditures mean more taxes are coming for you
• 58% of targeted U.S. imports exempt from Canada’s retaliatory tariffs, says new report
• Gas prices ‘among the cheapest in nearly a decade’ to start summer, analyst says
• Bank of Canada holds interest rate at 2.75% again as ‘uncertainty remains high’
• Why the Canadian dollar is going up when the economy is going down

Picture of the month

Ryan and Brendan celebrating after cycling across Saskatchewan in 2023 – stay tuned for photos from their cross-Manitoba journey this month!