Gold Seal 2025 Review

‘Twas the night before Christmas, and markets looked worn,

From a year where each morning brought noise by the horn.

The headlines were loud, the forecasts were sure,

Yet portfolios survived by doing far less, not more.

 

The year opened loudly with ballots now cast,

A familiar name back from elections now past.

Markets reacted, then settled right in,

As they often do once the noise wears thin.

 

Borders dominated much of the theme,

Immigration debated on every news stream.

Strong words, sharp opinions, solutions less clear,

While businesses quietly asked “who works here next year”.

 

Up north, Ottawa sparred with a confident tone,

On deficits, housing, and who’d dropped the ball first at home.

Taxes were tweaked, affordability proclaimed,

While Canadians quietly wondered how blame would be framed.

 

Then came “Liberation Day”, tariffs declared,

“Reciprocal” duties with speeches well-shared.

Markets stumbled first, then went on their way,

As supply chains adjusted by Tuesday, not May.

 

Canadians watched closely, elbows a bit keen,

The U.S. looked chaotic, at least on the screen.

Many vowed loudly to pull money back home,

Then quietly noticed where earnings had grown.

 

Summer confirmed what the data implied,

That headlines feel scary, but markets decide.

Diversification mattered, staying balanced proved wise,

As U.S. profits justified keeping capital diversified.

 

Geopolitics lingered in every debate,

Trade routes, defense spending, and energy fate.

Yet markets, indifferent to noise and despair,

Rewarded the patient, the global, the prepared.

 

Rates finally moved, to much public delight,

Though not quite the windfall predicted at night.

Borrowers relaxed, savers stayed wise,

And balanced plans quietly won the prize.

 

Housing stayed stubborn, refusing to crack,

Despite forecasts predicting a dramatic pullback.

Real estate shifted, offices learned,

That five days a week was not being returned.

 

Crypto reappeared, less wild, more restrained,

Less teenage rebellion, more buttoned and trained.

AI stopped being flashy and started to work,

Less sci-fi, more spreadsheets, less buzzword, more perk.

 

As fall wore on, deficits entered the chat,

In Canada especially, imagine that.

Interest costs climbed, patience wore thin,

And “how do we pay for this?” crept quietly in.

 

Then late in the year, as traditions persist,

A U.S. government shutdown arrived, as if checked off a list.

Markets looked on with a practiced calm stare,

More tired of theatre than genuinely scared.

 

Through all of the noise, one truth stayed in sight,

Emotions feel urgent, but rarely get timing right.

The urge to react, to sell, to declare,

Remained the biggest risk sitting quietly there.

 

So here ends 2025, dramatic in tone,

But far less extreme than the feeds on your phone.

At Gold Seal, the plans held, performance came through,

Strong results earned by staying steady and true.

With portfolios built for the long-term fight,

Happy holidays to all, and to all a good night.

 

2025 in Review

Loud Headlines, Quiet Results, and the Value of Staying Invested

If 2024 felt like standing in the driveway wondering how bad the storm might get, 2025 was the year we actually had to shovel. Headlines came fast and loud, politics dominated the airwaves, and there was no shortage of reasons to feel uneasy. Yet beneath the noise, markets once again reminded investors of a frustrating but enduring truth: the economy is not the news cycle, and portfolios do not move in lockstep with political sentiment.

From a macro standpoint, 2025 was defined less by crisis and more by adjustment. Central banks continued their gradual easing policy, but not dramatically. Interest rates moved lower in fits and starts, offering relief to borrowers without reopening the era of free money. Inflation cooled but never fully disappeared, keeping policymakers cautious and investors focused on real returns rather than nominal headlines. This was not a year for heroic forecasts, but for realism.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House early in the year set the tone for much of the political discourse that followed. Markets reacted briefly, as they always do, then recalibrated. By spring, “Liberation Day” tariffs brought trade back into the spotlight, particularly for Canada. The rhetoric was sharp, the commentary relentless, and the anxiety understandable. Yet once again, markets distinguished between noise and fundamentals. Supply chains adjusted, companies adapted, and while volatility picked up, many impacts are still filtering through and may extend into 2026, though markets have so far remained resilient.

For Canadian investors, 2025 created an uncomfortable paradox. On one hand, domestic markets performed reasonably well, supported by financials, energy, and materials. On the other, the emotional urge to distance portfolios from the U.S. grew louder, driven by political fatigue and cultural tension rather than fundamentals. Many talked openly about pulling capital home. Fewer actually followed through, and with good reason.

Despite the chaos on the screen, U.S. businesses continued to generate strong earnings. Productivity gains, particularly tied to AI adoption, showed up not in flashy headlines but in margins, cash flows, and balance sheets. For diversified portfolios, maintaining U.S. exposure was not about making a political statement. It was about remaining invested in the deepest capital markets and most profitable companies in the world. Diversification, dull as it may sound, once again did its job.

Canada’s own challenges became more pronounced as the year progressed. Housing affordability remained unresolved, government deficits drew growing scrutiny, and higher interest expenses began to crowd out policy flexibility. Skepticism toward public spending increased, particularly as households continued to feel the lingering effects of elevated borrowing costs. None of this amounted to crisis, but it did reinforce the importance of looking beyond our borders for growth and opportunity.

Markets themselves told a quieter story than the headlines suggested. Equity returns were positive but uneven. Leadership rotated. Bonds, after years of being written off, reasserted their role as both stabilizer and income generator. Real estate continued its slow reset, particularly in commercial spaces where the return to five-day office life never materialized. Crypto re-emerged in a more regulated, institutional form. AI stopped being a spectacle and started becoming infrastructure.

Perhaps the most important theme of 2025 was behavioural. Emotions ran high. Opinions hardened online. The urge to react felt constant. Yet time and again, the investors who fared best were those who resisted dramatic shifts, ignored the daily outrage cycle, and stayed aligned with long-term plans. Markets rewarded patience, balance, and perspective far more consistently than conviction driven by headlines.

At Gold Seal Financial Group, 2025 was a strong year for our clients. Performance reflected disciplined portfolio construction, global diversification, and a willingness to stay invested through uncomfortable moments. Serenity Portfolios benefitted from exposure to U.S. earnings strength, improving fixed income markets, and selective growth opportunities, while remaining grounded in risk management. Results were not the product of bold predictions, but of consistency and process.

As we move into 2026, the outlook remains mixed but manageable. Political noise will persist. Economic cycles will continue. What will not change is the value of thoughtful planning, diversification, and keeping emotions out of investment decisions. The past year reinforced that wealth is built quietly, not loudly, and that good outcomes rarely come from reacting to the story of the day.

The headlines will keep shouting. Our job remains the same: stay focused on what matters, manage risk intelligently, and help clients move forward with confidence.