This past quarter reminded us that markets can change direction quickly. When headlines shift and uncertainty rises, a steady process matters. Our focus remains the same: build diversified portfolios, manage risk carefully, and act when opportunities appear.

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What happened in markets

Markets started the year on a strong note. In January and February, equities moved higher, and leadership broadened beyond the large technology names. Areas tied to real assets did well, including energy and materials (such as gold and copper), along with parts of emerging markets.

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In March, sentiment changed. Concerns around military developments in the Middle East increased worries about wider regional spillover in the Gulf. Investors began to focus on the risk of energy supply disruption, including the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being affected. Oil prices rose sharply, and inflation concerns returned.

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As inflation fears increased, investors also changed their view on interest rates. Instead of expecting rate cuts, markets began pricing in a more difficult environment — requiring interest rates to hold steady and possible increases. This uncertainty led to weaker equity markets to finish the quarter.

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For context, global equities declined overall. The iShares MSCI World Index ETF (XWD.TO) was down 1.41% in Q1 2026.

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What we did in your portfolio

We are pleased with how the portfolio was positioned during this volatility. Our equity portion was slightly up for the same period, which helped protect capital during the drawdown.

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A few key actions and contributors:

 

1) Energy: disciplined gains in a volatile environment

Our energy exposure is through Ninepoint Energy, managed by Eric Nuttall. This position benefited from what we believe has been a disconnect between market pricing and real‑world risks around supply. Markets have generally assumed disruptions will be brief. We believe the situation may take longer to resolve. That said, we also recognize the risk of a sudden agreement that could quickly pull oil prices (and energy stocks) lower. Because of that, we have been realizing gains when appropriate and will continue to manage the position actively and prudently.

 

2) Commodities and mining: taking profits, then re‑entering at better levels

We were also active in Dynamic Active Mining Opportunities ETF (DXMO.TO), which includes exposure to gold, copper, uranium, and other commodities. On January 28, 2026, we reduced exposure after a very sharp run‑up, with the strategy up more than 24% year‑to‑date at the time. This proved timely as enthusiasm cooled and the sector pulled back. Gold weakened as expectations for higher interest rates increased (higher rates often reduce the appeal of gold). Later in the quarter, we bought back part of the position at prices roughly 25% lower, improving the long‑term risk‑reward and avoiding a meaningful portion of the decline.

 

3) Currency: the U.S. dollar strengthened

Another theme this quarter was a stronger U.S. dollar as investors sought safety. While the Canadian dollar has support at times from higher oil prices, the U.S. dollar strengthened broadly, including versus the Canadian dollar. Most clients watch the rate as CAD/USD, and the Canadian dollar moved toward about US$0.71. We think the U.S. dollar could remain firm if oil prices cool from recent highs and Canada’s economic momentum remains limited. We also believe the market may be too optimistic about additional rate increases in Canada. At the same time, currency markets can overreact. If we see a good opportunity, we are prepared to hedge foreign‑currency exposure to reduce risk.

 

4) Fixed income: using weakness to improve long‑term opportunity

In bonds, our view remains that interest rates are unlikely to rise as much as markets have recently priced in. As bond prices fell during the quarter, our actively managed fixed‑income solutions used that weakness to selectively add to areas with improved value — including longer‑term bonds and carefully chosen credit exposure. We are monitoring these managers closely to ensure the portfolio remains balanced and resilient.

 

Why activity matters (and how we manage risk)

Volatility this quarter created more opportunities — and required more decisions. We made several rebalances and profit‑taking moves across the portfolio as conditions changed quickly. A key point is that many parts of the portfolio are actively managed and there is active decision‑making within active solutions. This matters most when markets move fast.

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In addition, we continue to invest heavily in institutional‑quality risk management. During the quarter, we ran stress tests and scenario analysis using BlackRock’s Aladdin® risk management platform. These tools help us understand how the portfolio might behave during different types of market shocks. They are not forecasts. They are a way to spot hidden risks, understand how holdings may move together, and support better rebalancing and sizing decisions — especially during uncertain periods. This type of process is typically used by large institutions and is a meaningful part of the value we provide.

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Looking ahead

We remain cautious but constructive. Markets often recover a portion of sharp declines once uncertainty settles. Given the portfolio’s relative resilience, we are evaluating ways to increase equity exposure gradually so we can participate more fully if markets improve, while still respecting risk.

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As always, we will stay disciplined, keep risk at the centre of decisions, and remain ready to adjust as conditions evolve.

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Thank you for your continued trust. If you know of family members, colleagues, or friends who might benefit from the same disciplined and actively managed approach, we would be happy to be a resource and help in any way.

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Sincerely,

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The Team at Stonehaven Private Counsel

 

About the Authors
This commentary was prepared by Jeff Sproul, PFP®, CIM®, Victor Kuntzevitsky, CFA, CAIA, and Grant Dawes, CIM®, CFP®, TEP of Stonehaven Private Counsel at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel. Together, they provide portfolio management and wealth planning guidance to business owners, executives, affluent families, retirees, and multi-generational wealth clients. Learn more about their experience, credentials, and areas of expertise and explore how Stonehaven supports different client needs through its work with business owners, retirees, professionals, families, and next-generation wealth clients.

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Stonehaven in the News

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“Easing financial conditions, stabilizing global growth and a constructive backdrop for commodities should provide a slow but steady tailwind,” said Victor Kuntzevitsky, a portfolio manager at Stonehaven, Wellington-Altus Private Counsel.

“We expect energy, financials, industrials, and particularly the materials sector to be strong contributors to earnings as demand remains firm and capital discipline supports margins.”

Canada’s TSX seen hitting new highs on sector rotation: Reuters poll | Reuters

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Victor Kuntzevitsky, portfolio manager with Stonehaven Private Counsel at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc. in Aurora, Ont., sees the current anxiety in the sector as a sign of a maturing market, not a reason to run for the exits.

“The current turmoil in private credit is visible, but it’s orderly, and exactly what the structure of semi-liquid private credit markets was built to handle,” he says.

However, Mr. Kuntzevitsky faults the way these investments have been marketed as offering an attractive yield while “being like an ATM, where funds could be withdrawn at any time.”

He points out that some Canadian legacy credit funds had excessively liberal liquidity terms in which investors could request their money back within two weeks to a month.

“There was a mismatch between the loans the funds held compared to the redemption terms they offered,” he says. “When these funds were overwhelmed with redemptions, they didn’t have enough cash on hand and were forced to gate, preventing further withdrawals.”

Mr. Kuntzevitsky says the risk of contagion in private credit funds is higher in Canada because of the large overlap of advisors and investors in these funds: “If one fund gates, the advisor might think, ‘If this fund has issues, I’m going to submit redemptions in the other funds, too.’”

Why more retail investors are pouring money into private credit – and the risks | The Globe and Mail

The material contained herein has been provided for information purposes only.  The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable.  Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment.  The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice.  Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance.  This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document.  Wellington-Altus Private Counsel  (WAPC) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WAPC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.  Before acting on any of the above, please contact your financial advisor.

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