As we close the books on 2025, we want to extend our sincere appreciation for your continued trust and partnership.  Happy New Year!

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2025 was a year of contrasts—defined by meaningful progress, rapid shifts in sentiment, and periods of sharp volatility. These conditions reinforced the necessity of our disciplined, active, and forward‑looking approach. Despite the headlines, financial markets demonstrated resilience, and your portfolios benefited from the tactical rebalancing and risk management measures we executed throughout the year.

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Quarter in Review: Ending on a High Note

The final quarter of 2025 mirrored the broader pattern of the year: constructive momentum punctuated by volatility. Markets experienced a sharp pullback in mid‑November before rallying into year‑end, with major indices approaching or revisiting all‑time highs.

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Several key forces shaped this environment:

• Policy Shifts: Uncertainty surrounding the new U.S. administration continued to drive sentiment.
• The Innovation Engine: Technology and artificial intelligence remained central themes, continuing to attract significant capital.
• Earnings Optimism: Expectations for 2026 earnings strengthened, supported by the potential for a more accommodating interest rate environment.

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Portfolio Activity & Strategic Positioning

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Active Equity & Asset Allocation: Our team remained highly active in Q4, viewing volatility as an opportunity to be exploited rather than a threat to be feared.

• Buying the Dip (Early November): In early November, when markets dipped, we made a proactive adjustment to the portfolio. We sold some of our “safety” investments—such as U.S. government bonds and low‑volatility global stocks—which held up well during the pullback. We then used that money to buy investments we felt were likely to bounce back as the market recovered, including corporate bonds, broad stock market exposure, and a small allocation to digital assets. This shift worked well, as the areas we moved into began recovering shortly afterward.
• Locking in Gains (Late November): We trimmed our Energy exposure to lock in profits. We also further reduced defensive allocations to increase our weight in digital assets and technology, positioning the portfolio for high-growth potential heading into 2026.

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Digital Asset Management: In December, we actively managed our digital asset holdings to optimize for tax efficiency. We executed a tax-loss harvesting trade to offset capital gains elsewhere in the portfolio. This required a temporary rotation into an alternative holding structure; however, we plan to reverse this position and return to our preferred cost-effective solution in the near term.

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Fixed Income & Private Markets

• Fixed Income: Our strategy remains centred on high‑quality government and corporate bonds. By actively managing the mix between safe-haven treasuries and corporate credit, we aim to capture yield while maintaining stability.
• Private Markets: We are observing continued resilience across private credit holdings, but are continuing to see weakness in private real-estate driven by interest rates and changing migration patterns.

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Looking Ahead to 2026: Managing the Return of Speculation

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As we enter the new year, our outlook is balanced and constructive. While early forecasts pointed to a softer economic environment heading into 2026, sentiment has shifted. Global fund manager surveys indicate the highest level of optimism in years, driven by robust earnings expectations and the potential for lower interest rates.

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However, optimism often invites volatility. We expect the erratic patterns seen in 2025 to persist.

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We are beginning to see signs of “speculative mania” returning to specific pockets of the market, including metals and niche equities. We anticipate this environment will likely favour digital assets and growth. However, while we are positioned to participate in this potential upside, we intend to remain agile—we will move quickly to realize profits and protect capital when opportunities present themselves as we anticipate risk to the economy in the second half of 2026.

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A Note on Value and Transparency

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As the industry continues its steady move toward clearer reporting and greater transparency, we view this evolution as a positive one. But while disclosure is important, what truly matters is the value an investment solution delivers relative to the goals it is designed to achieve.

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Our approach has always been rooted in building portfolios intentionally—not simply selecting the lowest‑cost option, but choosing the structure, strategy, and tools that we believe offer the strongest probability of achieving the desired exposure, risk profile, and long‑term return targets. In some cases, that may mean using higher‑cost managers or specialized strategies if we believe their expertise, methodology, or access to certain markets provides meaningful value that supports your objectives.

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Ultimately, every decision we make—whether it involves portfolio construction, risk management, or tax‑efficient implementation—is guided by one principle: delivering outcomes that help you reach your long‑term goals with confidence. When a solution contributes directly to that mission, it earns its place in your portfolio.

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Thank You

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We are truly grateful for the confidence you place in Stonehaven Private Counsel.

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The greatest compliment we receive is a referral. If you know friends, family, or colleagues who would benefit from our thoughtful and disciplined approach to wealth management, we would be honoured to make their acquaintance.

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We look forward to supporting your success in 2026 and beyond.

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Sincerely,

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The Team at Stonehaven Private Counsel

 

About the Authors
This commentary was prepared by Jeff Sproul, PFP®, CIM®, Victor Kuntzevitsky, CFA, CAIA, and Grant Dawes, CIM®, CFP®, TEP of Stonehaven Private Counsel at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel. Together, they provide portfolio management and wealth planning guidance to business owners, executives, affluent families, retirees, and multi-generational wealth clients. Learn more about their experience, credentials, and areas of expertise and explore how Stonehaven supports different client needs through its work with business owners, retirees, professionals, families, and next-generation wealth clients. .

 

Stonehaven in the News

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“The materials sector, we see as the main beneficiary here,” said Victor Kuntzevitsky, a portfolio manager at Stonehaven, Wellington-Altus Private Counsel.

“As you read through what the Canadian commitment is to NATO, a large percentage of it is the mining area, specifically metals that are required for the military and industrial complex. So anything that can help with permitting, allowing the material companies more easily and quickly and cheaply get those metals out of the ground, will help.”

“We are seeing tangible optimism around the Canadian government policy which is aimed at encouraging economic growth,” Kuntzevitsky said. “You’re really seeing that the Canadian government is recognizing the significance of being able to export our vast commodities to global markets.”

Canadian investors bet on defense, construction stocks as Carney targets nation-building projects | Reuters

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“The bank’s move signals a pivot from fighting inflation to supporting a struggling economy,” said Victor Kuntzevitsky, a portfolio manager at Stonehaven, Wellington-Altus Private Counsel. “It reinforces the lower-for-longer rate environment which has implications for everything from bank margins to dividend-paying utilities.”

“Global demand for gold continues to be driven by central bank demand, especially the Chinese central bank,” Kuntzevitsky said. “We haven’t yet seen inflows from retail investors and we think that the next wave in gold appreciation will come from retail investors.”

Why more retail investors are pouring money into private credit – and the risks | The Globe and Mail.

The material contained herein has been provided for information purposes only.  The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable.  Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment.  The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice.  Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance.  This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document.  Wellington-Altus Private Counsel  (WAPC) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WAPC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.  Before acting on any of the above, please contact your financial advisor.