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After some months of disappointing returns, the much-awaited spark in equities finally ignited this November, resulting in substantial gains across the model portfolios. The performance measured from October 31, 2023 to November 27, 2023 is as follows:
- Growth Portfolio up 16.7%
- Income Portfolio up 7.7%
- American Growth up 13.4%
- Small Cap up 6.4%
Please see the disclaimer below on performance reporting
The month began with a flurry of breadth-thrust signals, signaling a swift shift from pessimism to optimism among investors—a historical precursor to a bottom in stock prices. Notably, the Zweig Breadth Thrust Signal, named after famed investor Marty Zweig, has maintained a 100% success rate since 1945 in predicting the S&P 500’s ascent 12 months later, boasting an average return of 23.3%. This consecutive annual breadth thrust, following October 2022, amplifies our anticipation of robust stock performance ahead. Already, some of our holdings are reaching new all-time highs including Dollarama, Constellation Software, Alimentation Couche-Tard, Thomson Reuters, Microsoft, Broadridge Financial Solutions and Roper Technologies.
Despite November’s strong gains, we consider our holdings to be significantly undervalued, based on their growing cashflows and high-quality operations. We see continued economic strength, particularly in the USA, driving earnings higher. The concept of “Fiscal Dominance,” where substantial government spending surpasses the constraints of higher interest rates — is catching more attention from investors. We expect this dynamic to sustain and drive economic momentum, ultimately leading to further optimism.
In light of these prevailing conditions, our confidence in a year-end rally for stocks has grown stronger. We remain steadfastly optimistic for 2024.
On behalf of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth and the team at Stonehaven Wealth Management, I wish you a joyful holiday season filled with happiness, peace, and prosperity.
Model Portfolio Highlights
Growth Portfolio
We made no changes to the holdings in November.
American Growth Portfolio
We harvested losses in Roblox, UiPath and Warner Brothers to initiate new positions in Docusign, Intuitive Surgical, Salesforce, and MSCI. We believe the change will increase potential return for the portfolio by improving the overall earnings quality and cashflow growth of our businesses.
Income Portfolio
We made no changes to the holdings in November.
Small Cap Portfolio
We harvested losses in AutoCanada, Cogeco, and Data Communications Management to initiate new stakes in Converge Technology Solutions, Pollard Banknote and Richard’s Packaging. Our new holdings collectively improve the overall earnings quality of the portfolio, which we believe will result in a higher return.
Across all portfolios we look for mispriced opportunities, considering only those with a significant margin of safety and minimal risk of permanent capital loss. After identifying such opportunities, patience is the most important factor in realizing our expected long term return.
If you have any questions about your portfolio, financial planning or investments please be in touch. If you’d like to add a friend or family to this email list, please let me know. Click to book a meeting: https://calendly.com/bwk-wapw
Thank you.
Yours,
Ben
Ben W. Kizemchuk
Portfolio Manager & Investment Advisor
Wellington-Altus Private Wealth
Office: 416.369.3024
Email: bwk@wellington-altus.ca
Book a meeting
Ben Kizemchuk offers full-service wealth management for high-net-worth Canadians including families, business owners, and successful professionals. Ben and his team provide investment advice, financial planning, tax minimization strategies, and retirement planning.
Performance reporting disclaimer: Performance results reflect the returns of each representative model portfolio. Returns are calculated using each model portfolio’s monthly performance, including changes in securities values, and accrued income (i.e., dividend and interest), against its market value at the closing of the last business day of the previous month. Performance results are expressed in the stated strategy’s base currency and are calculated on a net of fees basis. Individual account performance may materially differ from the representative performance history set out in this document, due to factors such as an account’s size, the length of time the strategy has been held, the timing and amount of deposits and withdrawals, the timing and amount of dividends and other income, and fees and other costs. Investors should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any investment strategy or security and no financial decisions should be made solely on the basis of the information provided in this document. This is not an official statement from WAPW. Please refer to your official WAPW statement for your specific performance numbers.
Market Commentary
December 2023 Update
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After some months of disappointing returns, the much-awaited spark in equities finally ignited this November, resulting in substantial gains across the model portfolios. The performance measured from October 31, 2023 to November 27, 2023 is as follows:
Please see the disclaimer below on performance reporting
The month began with a flurry of breadth-thrust signals, signaling a swift shift from pessimism to optimism among investors—a historical precursor to a bottom in stock prices. Notably, the Zweig Breadth Thrust Signal, named after famed investor Marty Zweig, has maintained a 100% success rate since 1945 in predicting the S&P 500’s ascent 12 months later, boasting an average return of 23.3%. This consecutive annual breadth thrust, following October 2022, amplifies our anticipation of robust stock performance ahead. Already, some of our holdings are reaching new all-time highs including Dollarama, Constellation Software, Alimentation Couche-Tard, Thomson Reuters, Microsoft, Broadridge Financial Solutions and Roper Technologies.
Despite November’s strong gains, we consider our holdings to be significantly undervalued, based on their growing cashflows and high-quality operations. We see continued economic strength, particularly in the USA, driving earnings higher. The concept of “Fiscal Dominance,” where substantial government spending surpasses the constraints of higher interest rates — is catching more attention from investors. We expect this dynamic to sustain and drive economic momentum, ultimately leading to further optimism.
In light of these prevailing conditions, our confidence in a year-end rally for stocks has grown stronger. We remain steadfastly optimistic for 2024.
On behalf of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth and the team at Stonehaven Wealth Management, I wish you a joyful holiday season filled with happiness, peace, and prosperity.
Model Portfolio Highlights
Growth Portfolio
We made no changes to the holdings in November.
American Growth Portfolio
We harvested losses in Roblox, UiPath and Warner Brothers to initiate new positions in Docusign, Intuitive Surgical, Salesforce, and MSCI. We believe the change will increase potential return for the portfolio by improving the overall earnings quality and cashflow growth of our businesses.
Income Portfolio
We made no changes to the holdings in November.
Small Cap Portfolio
We harvested losses in AutoCanada, Cogeco, and Data Communications Management to initiate new stakes in Converge Technology Solutions, Pollard Banknote and Richard’s Packaging. Our new holdings collectively improve the overall earnings quality of the portfolio, which we believe will result in a higher return.
Across all portfolios we look for mispriced opportunities, considering only those with a significant margin of safety and minimal risk of permanent capital loss. After identifying such opportunities, patience is the most important factor in realizing our expected long term return.
If you have any questions about your portfolio, financial planning or investments please be in touch. If you’d like to add a friend or family to this email list, please let me know. Click to book a meeting: https://calendly.com/bwk-wapw
Thank you.
Yours,
Ben
Ben W. Kizemchuk
Portfolio Manager & Investment Advisor
Wellington-Altus Private Wealth
Office: 416.369.3024
Email: bwk@wellington-altus.ca
Book a meeting
Ben Kizemchuk offers full-service wealth management for high-net-worth Canadians including families, business owners, and successful professionals. Ben and his team provide investment advice, financial planning, tax minimization strategies, and retirement planning.
Performance reporting disclaimer: Performance results reflect the returns of each representative model portfolio. Returns are calculated using each model portfolio’s monthly performance, including changes in securities values, and accrued income (i.e., dividend and interest), against its market value at the closing of the last business day of the previous month. Performance results are expressed in the stated strategy’s base currency and are calculated on a net of fees basis. Individual account performance may materially differ from the representative performance history set out in this document, due to factors such as an account’s size, the length of time the strategy has been held, the timing and amount of deposits and withdrawals, the timing and amount of dividends and other income, and fees and other costs. Investors should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any investment strategy or security and no financial decisions should be made solely on the basis of the information provided in this document. This is not an official statement from WAPW. Please refer to your official WAPW statement for your specific performance numbers.
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The opinions contained herein are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth. Assumptions, opinions and information constitute the author’s judgement as of the date this material and subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. All third party products and services referred to or advertised in this presentation are sold by the company or organization named. While these products or services may serve as valuable aids to the independent investor, WAPW does not specifically endorse any of these products or services. The third party products and services referred to, or advertised in this presentation, are available as a convenience to its customers only, and WAPW is not liable for any claims, losses or damages however arising out of any purchase or use of third party products or services. All insurance products and services are offered by life licensed advisors of Wellington-Altus. Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.