Tower Wealth Advisory

Newswire

The Power of Economic Sentiment

TW-WA Article

“Have we all just become economic snowflakes?”1

This question emerged from a recent study analyzing the text of 200 million newspapers spanning almost two centuries. It concluded that both economic and non-economic sentiment have substantially declined over the past 50 years, despite far fewer economic setbacks.2

In the not-so-distant past, recessions were seen as natural business cycle occurrences. Some market observers suggest this view shifted after the Global Financial Crisis, with policymakers now striving for the aversion of economic pain as a top priority.

Indeed, it appears that the long-feared recession in the U.S. may be far from arriving. While Canada’s economic output has been lacklustre, our economy has remained relatively resilient. Labour markets have been one reason for this resilience, with unemployment continuing at relative lows. This has largely supported GDP growth south of the border, where Americans have lower debt obligations and continue to spend; consumer spending comprises over two-thirds of U.S. GDP. We’ve needed a boost in Canada with our higher indebtedness and declining labour productivity rates. Yet, consider that wealth, wages and employment are higher today than they were before the pandemic began.

Still, for many, optimism continues to be in short supply. However, there are benefits to being more positive about the economy. One interesting observation from the same study that questioned our collective resilience suggested that positive economic sentiment can drive economic growth.2

It’s a view that merits perspective. Perhaps we’d be better off focusing on positive sentiment. We are living through a pivotal time, where advances in the availability of big data, high-powered computing and artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to lift productivity. While recent U.S. equity market gains have been driven by the handsomely-rewarded tech stocks, AI is in its early innings and its productivity and growth potential is far reaching — well beyond the tech sector.

Canada’s stock market has trailed due to its more cyclical nature, but is poised to benefit from interest rate stability and declining long-term rates. Corporate earnings may be driven by higher margins through efficiency gains and lower input costs, particularly as inflation moderates. While Canadian economic output has been sluggish, the strength of our largest trading partner should help provide near-term momentum. And, the potential for interest rate cuts may provide further tailwinds to equity markets.

This is not to suggest that short-term setbacks won’t occur. There are continuing signs of slowing economic growth closer to home and abroad; the latest GDP data for the UK, Japan and Germany has been negative or close to zero. Yet, slower growth is part of the cycle and sometimes necessary for economies to cleanse excesses or reset — or even spark innovation and new growth.

Seasoned investors accept that both financial markets and economies will ebb and flow. This feature comes with progress of any sort. It is also one reason to support diversification in portfolio management and a good reminder of why we continue to invest with a view to the longer term. Looking forward, continue to focus on the many positives. Here’s to the warmer and longer spring days ahead. Please let us know if we can be of assistance with any investing matters.

1. https://www.ft.com/content/af78f86d-13d2-429d-ad55-a11947989c8f; 2.https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w32026/w32026.pdf
 

The information contained herein has been provided for information purposes only. Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information has been provided by J. Hirasawa & Associates and is drawn from sources believed to be reliable. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. (WAPW) and the authors do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WAPW, nor the authors, assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Before acting on any of the above, please contact me for individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances. WAPW is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.

Insurance products are provided through Wellington-Altus Insurance Inc.
© 2024, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. NO USE OR REPRODUCTION WITHOUT PERMISSION.
www.wellington-altus.ca
If you no longer wish to receive commercial electronic messages from Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc., please send an email to unsubscribe@wellington-altus.ca

Recent Posts

Higher Rates for Longer?

It has been termed ‘the great renewal’: A significant number of Canadian mortgages are coming up for renewal. By one account, around 2.2 million mortgages, or 45 percent of all outstanding mortgages, are set to face higher interest rates this year and next.

Read More »

U.S. Election Special Market Insights: American System 2.0

As the Roman philosopher and statesman Lucius Annaeus Seneca once said: “Yield not to adversity; trust not to prosperity; keep before your eyes the full scope of Fortune’s power, as if she would surely do whatever is in her power to do.” This sentiment resonates as we examine the current economic landscape shaped by Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Read More »

Your Questions Answered

With the (proposed*) increase to the capital gains inclusion rate in 2024, there have been various questions from
investors about tax planning. Here are two that relate to year-end planning.

Read More »

My/Our Difference During Uncertain Times

In the current environment of higher valuations, slower growth and increased volatility, there’s been renewed attention to alternative investments. Alternatives are often given focus during more challenging times since their performance doesn’t typically correlate with the markets.

Read More »

The opinions contained herein are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth. Assumptions, opinions and information constitute the author’s judgement as of the date this material and subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. All third party products and services referred to or advertised in this presentation are sold by the company or organization named. While these products or services may serve as valuable aids to the independent investor, WAPW does not specifically endorse any of these products or services. The third party products and services referred to, or advertised in this presentation, are available as a convenience to its customers only, and WAPW is not liable for any claims, losses or damages however arising out of any purchase or use of third party products or services. All insurance products and services are offered by life licensed advisors of Wellington-Altus.