For 2024: Focus Less on the Headlines

History does not move in straight lines. Markets ricochet between excess and restraint in violent cycles, a truth American economist Peter Bernstein hammered home and one investors are again being forced to relearn. The foundation for the 2026 investment thesis is that with interest payments on U.S. debt now exceeding annual defense spending, the fiscal constraint has become too binding to ignore, and structural adjustment is no longer optional. We have no choice but to adjust; the system is in a state of flux.

As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has argued, the world is entering a regime shift as consequential as the post-Cold War settlement: 2026 marks the end of pandemic-era stimulus and the start of a new cycle driven by credit markets, technology infrastructure, and redesigned policy frameworks. Under U.S. President Donald Trump, the United States is pivoting toward physical production and capital formation, reviving a traditional comparative advantage that other nations are emulating—much like the 1990s shift from Keynesian to supply-side economics after the Berlin Wall fell when risk assets thrived. In 2026, liquidity increases, deregulation continues, and early in the year, investors should begin increasing exposure to interest-rate-sensitive areas as equity market participation broadens.

Rumours of the U.S. dollar’s decline are as persistent as they are exaggerated. In 2025, one fact stands out: The global U.S. dollar system—“King Dollar”—is not vanishing. The financial, legal, and institutional architecture that makes the dollar the world’s indispensable currency remains at the heart of global finance. It is this systemic centrality, not its day-to-day market price, that ensures “King Dollar” matters most, and it is being strategically reinforced and recalibrated for a multipolar era. After the energetic “weaponization” of the dollar under the Biden administration and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, a prudent diversification of reserves by global central banks was always going to follow. Still, to declare the end of U.S. exceptionalism or the death of King Dollar is not just premature, it is strategically misguided. Yes, the counter trend rally in many currencies is coming to an end. Driven by fundamentals, the King Dollar revival is upon us; investors take note.

On November 4, 2025, Finance Minister and National Revenue Minister François-Philippe Champagne tabled the much-anticipated 2025 Federal Budget (Budget 2025). With no spring budget earlier this year, Canadians have been eager for insights into the government’s fiscal priorities and economic direction. Our Advanced Wealth Planning Group has summarized the key highlights and implications from this release.