Markets rarely linger in equilibrium. The pendulum of sentiment swings between fear and greed, and this year has been no exception. After April’s lows, the S&P surged over 30 percent in just two months, one of the fastest rallies in recent history, while the TSX hit multiple all-time highs.
It’s impossible to ignore the historical parallels between today and another moment of profound transition, the early 1990s. U.S. President Donald Trump’s diplomatic efforts are channelling the “peace through strength” ethos that defined U.S. foreign policy at the end of the Cold War. Much like the peace dividend of that era, which allowed capital to flow from the military-industrial complex into innovation and new industries, Trump’s new deals aim to lower global tension, cut risk premiums, and unlock resources for economic
expansion.
In a year marked by fiscal surprises and technological upheaval, America stands at a crossroads. The June 2025 budget surplus has upended the old narratives, leaving Wall Street’s perennial skeptics scrambling for new alarms. Yet beneath the noise, a deeper transformation is underway.
The Federal Reserve, central bank ideology, and the future of economic order “The Federal Reserve… is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.” – William McChesney Martin Jr., U.S. Federal Reserve chair, in a 1955 speech
It has been said that “there are decades where nothing seems to happen, and there are weeks where decades happen.” The sweeping global tariffs,announced by the U.S. on April’s “Liberation Day,” caught the world off guard—disrupting longheld norms in global trade and world order. This may signal the beginning of a new chapter—one where political disruption, rapidly shifting policies and the velocity of digital information collide.
For decades, the American establishment clung to the gospel of globalization, open markets, cheap goods, and the promise of shared prosperity. Yet beneath the surface, this grand experiment hollowed out the nation’s industrial heartland, eroded economic security, and fuelled a populist backlash that upended politics from Ohio to Washington. The opioid crisis, the decay of small towns, and the anger of those left behind are not mysterious—they are the predictable fallout of an economic order designed by and for elites, insulated from the consequences of their own policies.
In an era of unprecedented geopolitical and economic shifts, the Mar-a-Lago Accord signals a decisive, disruptive strategy by the U.S. to redefine its global influence and economic stability. Moving beyond unipolar dominance, the U.S. aims to reshape the international order through strategic tariffs, security realignments, financial innovations, and institutional reforms—guided by historical lessons and Keynesian principles.
Now that the Canadian election is over and Mark Carney has won, the hard part begins. The campaign trail is behind him; the spotlight now shifts to the daunting reality of governing a nation under siege from global headwinds and domestic skepticism.Mark Carney, the 24th Prime Minister of Canada, inherits not just the legacy of a decade of Liberal rule but a country whose economic standing and reputation are under intense scrutiny from global capital markets and geopolitical rivals alike.
The signing of the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 didn’t just end the Thirty Years’ War; it reshaped the global order. It established state sovereignty and balance-of-power principles that have governed international relations for centuries. As Hobbes insightfully noted, while conflict may be inherent in human nature, peace is achievable through mutual agreement among sovereign powers. Fast forward to today: the global order that emerged after the Second World War is crumbling. We are entering a multipolar era one fraught with complexities, contradictions, and opportunities.
The rhetorical tautology, “Predictions are difficult,especially about the future” may feel particularly relevant today.1 The start of 2025 has been marked by low visibility, with two events casting a cloud of uncertainty over investor sentiment: the launch of DeepSeek’s AI platform—claiming to be a significantly lower-cost model—and U.S.President Trump unleashing a trade war.
Our Chief Market Strategist, James Thorne, explores how Canada can chart a new path forward with growing pressures from Trump and a declining global trade system in his March Market Insights.
Are centrist policies the answer to today’s polarized political landscape? As Trudeau resigns and Trump returns to the White House James Thorne explores how shifting political leanings will challenge the status quo.
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