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“I read in a newspaper that I was to be received with all the honors customarily rendered to a foreign ruler. I am grateful for the honors; but something within me rebelled at that word ‘foreign’. I say this because when I have been in Canada, I have never heard a Canadian refer to an American as a ‘foreigner’. He is just an ‘American’. And, in the same way, in the United States, Canadians are not ‘foreigners’, they are ‘Canadians’. That simple little distinction illustrates to me better than anything else the relationship between our two countries.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt, address in Quebec, 1936

It’s impossible to ignore the historical parallels between today and another moment of profound transition, the early 1990s. U.S. President Donald Trump’s diplomatic efforts are channelling the “peace through strength” ethos that defined U.S. foreign policy at the end of the Cold War. Much like the peace dividend of that era, which allowed capital to flow from the military-industrial complex into innovation and new industries, Trump’s new deals aim to lower global tension, cut risk premiums, and unlock resources for economic
expansion.

In a year marked by fiscal surprises and technological upheaval, America stands at a crossroads. The June 2025 budget surplus has upended the old narratives, leaving Wall Street’s perennial skeptics scrambling for new alarms. Yet beneath the noise, a deeper transformation is underway.

The Federal Reserve, central bank ideology, and the future of economic order “The Federal Reserve… is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.” – William McChesney Martin Jr., U.S. Federal Reserve chair, in a 1955 speech

For decades, the American establishment clung to the gospel of globalization, open markets, cheap goods, and the promise of shared prosperity. Yet beneath the surface, this grand experiment hollowed out the nation’s industrial heartland, eroded economic security, and fuelled a populist backlash that upended politics from Ohio to Washington. The opioid crisis, the decay of small towns, and the anger of those left behind are not mysterious—they are the predictable fallout of an economic order designed by and for elites, insulated from the consequences of their own policies.

Now that the Canadian election is over and Mark Carney has won, the hard part begins. The campaign trail is behind him; the spotlight now shifts to the daunting reality of governing a nation under siege from global headwinds and domestic skepticism.Mark Carney, the 24th Prime Minister of Canada, inherits not just the legacy of a decade of Liberal rule but a country whose economic standing and reputation are under intense scrutiny from global capital markets and geopolitical rivals alike.

The signing of the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 didn’t just end the Thirty Years’ War; it reshaped the global order. It established state sovereignty and balance-of-power principles that have governed international relations for centuries. As Hobbes insightfully noted, while conflict may be inherent in human nature, peace is achievable through mutual agreement among sovereign powers. Fast forward to today: the global order that emerged after the Second World War is crumbling. We are entering a multipolar era one fraught with complexities, contradictions, and opportunities.

Our Chief Market Strategist, James Thorne, explores how Canada can chart a new path forward with growing pressures from Trump and a declining global trade system in his March Market Insights.