May Market Insights: The FTX Fiasco Has Nothing To Do With Blockchain Adoption.
Huckleberry Finn Is Not Tom Sawyer. Download this PDF here. “Corruption, embezzlement, fraud, these are all characteristics which exist everywhere.” — Alan Greenspan When one thinks of blockchain, one quickly thinks of Bitcoin, NFTs, and cryptocurrencies. Just as so many confuse Mark Twain’s Huckleberry Finn with Tom Sawyer, to the point where the rock band […]
April Market Insights: It Looks Like This Holy Fool Was Right, What Now?
Download this PDF here. “The holy fool is a truth-teller because he is an outcast. Those not part of the existing social hierarchy are free to blurt out inconvenient truths or question things the rest of us take for granted.” – Malcolm Gladwell in Talking to Strangers Since 2020, I’ve been one of the few […]
March Market Insights: Fire And Ice: The Fight Between Inflation and Deflation
What’s a More Significant Risk, Inflation or Deflation? Download this PDF here. “Some say the world will end in fire, some say ice. From what I’ve tasted of desire, I hold with those who favor fire. But if it had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate to know that for destruction, […]
February Market Insights: Apocalypse Delayed – The U.S. Debt-Ceiling Debate
What if the U.S. Government Defaults on its Debt? Download this PDF here. “It’s never paid to bet against America.” – Warren Buffet If the U.S. was to default on its debt obligations, it would cause investors to flee from U.S. Treasuries, leading to a decrease in confidence in U.S. government debt and the U.S. […]
January Market Insights: The 2023 Market Forecast – The Pause that Refreshes
Throughout 2022, I differed from the consensus on what caused the inflation spike. The conventional view was that wages and aggregate demand of the private sector were the main culprits. I disagreed. My thesis was that the twin supply shocks of COVID-19 and the war, along with the extreme fiscal policy response, caused inflation. I adamantly disagree with the false premise that the inflation we experienced was akin to the 1970’s inflation spike.
November Market Insights: Trump, Gridlock And What It Means For Investors In 2023
After the 1994 midterm elections, gridlock was confirmed and inflation fears subsided. The next year, the Fed cut rates, and risk assets appreciated. The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data points to 2023 reversing the inflation shock, interest rate shock, and growing fears of 2022.
September Market Insights: Waiting For Godot
Passing the Peak Sagitta of the Inflation and Rate Expectation Arcs in 2022 Download this PDF here. “Let us do something while we have a chance! It is not every day we are needed.” — Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot Investors are waiting for their own Godot – certainty about the future. Like Godot, that […]
July Market Insights: The Fed & Its Use Of Economic Coercion
This is Not Coin-Flip Policymaking Download this article as a PDF. “Every theory is a self-fulfilling prophecy that orders experience into the framework it provides.” — Ruth Hubbard The old saying “don’t fight the Fed” has been a golden rule in investing that has served investors well for many decades. Yet, today, confidence in the […]
May Market Insights: A Secret War to Control the Fed?
The Danger of Bowing to Political Pressure Download this article as a PDF. “You are what your record says you are.” — Bill Parcells Author Michael Lewis reminds us of the consequences that can emerge when independent bodies succumb to political pressure. In his latest book, The Premonition, he suggests that the politicization of the […]
April Market Insights: Detonating a Tactical Financial Nuclear Weapon
Sowing the Seeds of a New Financial World Order? Download this article as a PDF. “With proper tactics, nuclear war need not be as destructive as it appears.” – Dr. Henry A. Kissinger The Ukraine/Russia crisis has highlighted a historic moment in the evolution of geopolitical balance. While the humanitarian perspective cannot be overlooked — […]