September Market Insights: Waiting For Godot
Passing the Peak Sagitta of the Inflation and Rate Expectation Arcs in 2022 Download this PDF here. “Let us do something while we have a chance! It is not every day we are needed.” — Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot Investors are waiting for their own Godot – certainty about the future. Like Godot, that […]
July Market Insights: The Fed & Its Use Of Economic Coercion
This is Not Coin-Flip Policymaking Download this article as a PDF. “Every theory is a self-fulfilling prophecy that orders experience into the framework it provides.” — Ruth Hubbard The old saying “don’t fight the Fed” has been a golden rule in investing that has served investors well for many decades. Yet, today, confidence in the […]
May Market Insights: A Secret War to Control the Fed?
The Danger of Bowing to Political Pressure Download this article as a PDF. “You are what your record says you are.” — Bill Parcells Author Michael Lewis reminds us of the consequences that can emerge when independent bodies succumb to political pressure. In his latest book, The Premonition, he suggests that the politicization of the […]
April Market Insights: Detonating a Tactical Financial Nuclear Weapon
Sowing the Seeds of a New Financial World Order? Download this article as a PDF. “With proper tactics, nuclear war need not be as destructive as it appears.” – Dr. Henry A. Kissinger The Ukraine/Russia crisis has highlighted a historic moment in the evolution of geopolitical balance. While the humanitarian perspective cannot be overlooked — […]
March Market Insights by James Thorne: Peak Inflation, Saved by Inertia?
Peak Inflation: Saved by Inertia? Download this article as a PDF. “Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?” – Simon & Garfunkel Given the continuing calls by market pundits for 50 basis point (bps) inter-meeting rate hikes — even while the Fed balance sheet is still expanding — or seven rate hikes in 2022 — despite slowing […]
February Market Insights by James Thorne: Is the Federal Reserve Losing its Independence?
Is the Federal Reserve Losing its Independence? Download this article as a PDF. “Grin and bear it.” – Alan Greenspan to Janet Yellen, 2016. When U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump accused the Federal Reserve of political bias in 2016, then-Chair Janet Yellen was given some advice: “Grin and bear it.” Indeed, there is a demarcation line […]
January Market Insights by James Thorne: The Year of the Fed
The Maradona & Cantillon Effects: 2022 — The Year of The Fed! Download this article as a PDF. “I am Maradona, who makes goals, who makes mistakes I can take it all, I have shoulders big enough to fight with everybody.” – Diego Maradona Often referred to as the “goal of the century,” Diego Maradona, an […]
December Market Insights by James Thorne: The Law of the Hammer
The Law of the Hammer: A Volcker Shock in 2022? Download this article as a PDF. “It’s burning down the house to roast the pig.” —Robert Solow, Nobel Prize Winner, Economics (1987) The concept of the “law of the hammer,” attributed to psychologist Abraham Maslow, suggests that humans can often be biased to have an over-reliance […]
November Market Insights by James Thorne:
Economic Squid Games: China’s Enduring Mastery of Survival Download this article as a PDF. “We’ve already come too far to end this now.” – Sang-Woo, Squid Game Squid Game is a dark drama set in Korea that depicts the lengths some individuals will go to in order to try and eliminate their extreme levels of debt. […]
October Market Insights by James Thorne:
Stagnation or Change: Crypto and the End of the Petrodollar Download this article as a PDF. “Just follow the money.” – Deep Throat, All the President’s Men In 1972, while Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward were investigating the break-in of the Democratic National Committee at the Watergate office complex, an informant provided the key to […]