Read, Listen & Watch

It was the best of times, it was the… absolute, all-time, best of times! As the U.S. market (S&P 500) cruised past its previous highs, posting a close of 4,927.93 and +23% 1-year gain to January 29, 2024, it became difficult for investors to recall that 2023 was supposed to be a recession year for North America. All year long, markets had remained cautiously fixated on the U.S. Federal Reserve as it continued hiking interest rates in an effort to cool inflation, in typical late-business cycle fashion. The longest serving Chairman, William McChesney Martin Jr., had once mused that it was the role of the Federal reserve to act as the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up. That is to say that it’s their job to hike rates and encourage saving, rather than spending, to reign in an economy running hot before inflation takes off.

The Santa Claus Rally

T’was the night before the strategy meeting, when all through the floor
The portfolios were shining, but Gold Seal wanted more;

The yields were printing from the bond desk with care,
With hopes that some rate cuts soon would be there;

Both Powell and Macklem were snug in their beds;
Dreaming rosy speeches for each of their Feds;

Our August 31st Gold Seal newsletter told the story of a North American stock market figuratively reaching the end of a whimsical summer and reluctantly returning to the classroom as it began to awaken to some harsh economic lessons. Indicators aside, an optimistic sentiment had clearly been in the air through the first half of the year as imaginations and valuations ran wild with the limitless potential of artificial intelligence and the adoption of ChatGPT.

The past few years have demonstrated that guidance from a trusted financial advisor has never been more valuable. Substantial data shows that families are significantly better off financially when they utilize the advice of a financial advisory team and have a comprehensive plan in place.

September saw the Gold Seal Financial Group take to the roads for our annual inspection of the outside-BC facets of the Canadian economy as Brendan, Ryan and Tanya made their way cycling from the western provincial border of Saskatchewan to the Manitoba welcome sign.

It is likely that for each of us, our childhood memories of summertime was a time of bliss. The structure and discipline of the school year is thrown aside for two glorious months as problem sets shift from studying for math or spelling exams, to who is hosting the next sleepover or pool party.

Like the family birthday party that you reluctantly agreed to, only to be berated by relatives on your plans for the future and relationship status, this Canada Day long weekend we’re taking a look at our nation and asking the hard questions. This year, Canada’s not exactly bragging at the dinner table, with the S&P/TSX having posted a relatively meagre 3.97% return for the first half of 2023, with the economy (real gross domestic product) growing 0.8% in the first quarter.

At the time of writing on May 31, the U.S. government is getting closer to finalizing an agreement to prevent a default on its debt ahead of a June 1 deadline. However, this does not mean everything is back to normal for investors, as the usual back-and-forth of negotiations comes at a time where the Federal Reserve is intent on punishing debt with high rates.

Over the past year, the mortgage industry has witnessed a puzzling trend: surging mortgage rates have not resulted in significant forced selling, as one might expect. A deeper look into Canada’s banking practices reveals a possible reason for this phenomenon.

Many individuals approaching retirement wonder if there is an optimal age to begin taking their Canada Pension Plan retirement pension benefits (CPP). The question often arises because CPP is calculated based upon the age at which an individual starts to receive monthly payments.