April Market Insights: It Looks Like This Holy Fool Was Right, What Now?
Since 2020, I’ve been one of the few holy fools that put forth the thesis that aggressively raising rates into a highly levered global economy would result in another financial crisis. My sin was questioning aggressive rate hikes based on the belief that low unemployment causes inflation.
March Market Insights: Fire and Ice – The Fight Between Inflation and Deflation
What’s a More Significant Risk, Inflation or Deflation? “Some say the world will end in fire, some say ice. From what I’ve tasted of desire, I hold with those who favor fire. But if it had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate to know that for destruction, ice is also great and would suffice.” [1] – Robert Frost
February Market Insights: Apocalypse Delayed – The U.S. Debt-Ceiling Debate
What if the U.S. Government Defaults on its Debt? “It’s never paid to bet against America.” – Warren Buffett. If the U.S. was to default on its debt obligations, it would cause investors to flee from U.S. Treasuries, leading to a decrease in confidence in U.S. government debt and the U.S. Dollar (USD) as being the medium of exchange for the global economy.
January Market Insights: The 2023 Market Forecast – The Pause that Refreshes
“All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” — George E. P. Box, statistician. “Patience is a form of wisdom,” notes Jon Kabat-Zinn, creator of the Stress Reduction Clinic and the Center for Mindfulness in Medicine at the University of Massachusetts Medical School.
November 2022 Market Insights by Dr. James Thorne: Trump, Gridlock And What It Means For Investors In 2023
After the 1994 midterm elections, gridlock was confirmed and inflation fears subsided. The next year, the Fed cut rates, and risk assets appreciated. The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data points to 2023 reversing the inflation shock, interest rate shock, and growing fears of 2022.
October Market Insights: Is The Fed Repeating The Mistake Of 1937?
Never Let a Good Crisis go to Waste Download this PDF here. “…you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves.” — President Andrew Jackson, 1836 In a recent article, Economist Bradford DeLong, shares a conversation he had with U.S. Secretary of the Treasury […]
September Market Insights: Waiting for Godot
Passing the Peak Sagitta of the Inflation and Rate Expectation Arcs in 2022 Download this PDF here. “Let us do something while we have a chance! It is not every day we are needed.” — Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot Investors are waiting for their own Godot – certainty about the future. Like Godot, that […]
August Market Insights: The Global Economy has its Hamlet Moment
Rebirth or a Financial Crisis Download this PDF here. “To be or not to be, that is the question. Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.” — Hamlet, Act 3, Scene 1, William Shakespeare Words and phrases derive much of their meaning from the context in which they […]
July Market Insights: The Fed & Its Use of Economic Coercion
This is Not Coin-Flip Policymaking Download this article as a PDF. “Every theory is a self-fulfilling prophecy that orders experience into the framework it provides.” — Ruth Hubbard The old saying “don’t fight the Fed” has been a golden rule in investing that has served investors well for many decades. Yet, today, confidence in the […]
June Market Insights: The Fed, From Tragedy to Rebirth?
Just Follow the Path of the Credit Markets Download this article as a PDF. “Always make the audience suffer as much as possible.” — Alfred Hitchcock Alfred Hitchcock once suggested that drama is life with the dull parts cut out. Given the state of the financial markets, this has never been more relevant than it […]