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April Market Insights: Greenspan’s Game Of Thrones

We are at a pivotal moment in history, one that former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan might liken to a historical juncture, where the intertwined narratives obscure the uniqueness of our era. As we contend with a world that echoes the tumult of epics like War and Peace or Game of Thrones, we are in the midst of a “Fourth Turning”—a period of intense demographic, technological, and structural change that recurs approximately every 80 years.

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March Market Insights: The Financial Storm Is Coming

It’s All About Timing. Navigating macro investing poses the challenge of not only identifying key events but also timing their occurrence. The hardest part is indeed getting the timing right. With Japan and the United Kingdom in recession, and Germany likely to follow, the global economic landscape is increasingly fraught with challenges.

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February Market Insights: Trump’s Shadow

As we enter a presidential election year in the U.S., financial markets are resonating with historical echoes. One can particularly recognize the rise of populism after the Civil War, which parallels today’s socio-political dynamics. This comparison challenges the conventional wisdom about investing in a world that is constantly evolving. Concomitantly, there are parallels to the post-Second World War era, notably the extreme levels of debt which rival only today. As the war ended and life got back to normal, a growth scare and deflation resulted. Hence my thesis that our transition period out of COVID-19 has all the earmarks of a transitional period of secular stagnation and deflation.

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January Market Insights: Is There Something Rotten In The State Of Canada?

In this sequel to Is There Something Rotten in the State of Canada? we delve further into the complex web of monetary and fiscal policies that seem at odds with one another, evoking the drama of a Shakespearean play. The phantom of secular stagnation and deflation is likely to haunt us once again in 2024. To quote Macbeth, “By the pricking of my thumbs, something wicked this way comes.” This chilling sentiment resonates when considering the future of Canada’s economy.

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