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May Market Insights

May Market Insights: Out Of Options

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, deeply mindful of Arthur Burns’ missteps and inspired by Paul Volcker’s tenacity, is fully cognisant of the historical significance of his role. I have consistently argued that Powell would benefit from studying William McChesney Martin’s tenure as the first post-Second World War Federal Reserve Chair in the 1950s. Martin adeptly navigated through a period of fiscal dominance, a pattern that is emerging once again. As Sir Winston Churchill implied, focusing on the wrong historical period can lead to policy errors and financial turmoil.

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2024 Federal Budget

Highlights from the 2024 Federal Budget

The 2024 Federal Budget, tabled on April 16, 2024, provides a mix of expected measures and a few surprises. In line with the announcements leading up to Budget Day, Budget 2024 outlines a multitude of measures targeted at housing affordability and the cost of living.

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Market Insights LinkedIn April 2024

April Market Insights: Greenspan’s Game Of Thrones

We are at a pivotal moment in history, one that former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan might liken to a historical juncture, where the intertwined narratives obscure the uniqueness of our era. As we contend with a world that echoes the tumult of epics like War and Peace or Game of Thrones, we are in the midst of a “Fourth Turning”—a period of intense demographic, technological, and structural change that recurs approximately every 80 years.

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Quarterly Investment Insight - Spring

Quarterly Investment Insight – Spring

The Power of Economic Sentiment Download this PDF here. “Have we all just become economic snowflakes?” This question emerged from a recent study analyzing the text of 200 million newspapers spanning almost two centuries. It concluded that both economic and non-economic sentiment have substantially declined over the past 50 years,

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Market-Insights_LinkedIn_March-2024

March Market Insights: The Financial Storm Is Coming

It’s All About Timing. Navigating macro investing poses the challenge of not only identifying key events but also timing their occurrence. The hardest part is indeed getting the timing right. With Japan and the United Kingdom in recession, and Germany likely to follow, the global economic landscape is increasingly fraught with challenges.

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large-Market-Insights_LinkedIn_February-2024

February Market Insights: Trump’s Shadow

As we enter a presidential election year in the U.S., financial markets are resonating with historical echoes. One can particularly recognize the rise of populism after the Civil War, which parallels today’s socio-political dynamics. This comparison challenges the conventional wisdom about investing in a world that is constantly evolving. Concomitantly, there are parallels to the post-Second World War era, notably the extreme levels of debt which rival only today. As the war ended and life got back to normal, a growth scare and deflation resulted. Hence my thesis that our transition period out of COVID-19 has all the earmarks of a transitional period of secular stagnation and deflation.

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The opinions contained herein are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth. Assumptions, opinions and information constitute the author’s judgement as of the date this material and subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. All third party products and services referred to or advertised in this presentation are sold by the company or organization named. While these products or services may serve as valuable aids to the independent investor, WAPW does not specifically endorse any of these products or services. The third party products and services referred to, or advertised in this presentation, are available as a convenience to its customers only, and WAPW is not liable for any claims, losses or damages however arising out of any purchase or use of third party products or services. All insurance products and services are offered by life licensed advisors of Wellington-Altus.