Godfather of Modern Monetary Theory Warns of “Drunken Sailor” Spending “Neither a borrower nor a lender be; For loan oft loses both itself and friend, and borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.” – William Shakespeare, Hamlet Download this PDF here. At this very moment, the U.S. faces a fiscal predicament
Mark Twain once delivered a sobering reminder of humanity’s tendency to disregard transformative ideas while allowing misconceptions to persist. As we stand on the precipice of two seismic shifts—the AI revolution and an impending fiscal storm—his words resonate profoundly.
When the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) crossed a new high of 40,000 in May, it achieved a milestone that appeared implausible given recent popular sentiment. Just two years earlier, central banks were still on the path of aggressively hiking rates to curb inflation. Gloomy equity market forecasts abounded. Fast forward to today, and interest rates remain higher than anticipated. Many valuation models use interest rates to discount future cash flows: higher rates lower a company’s future earnings and put downward pressure on stock prices.
In the complex arena of global finance, as in geopolitics, strategic positioning can be just as crucial as raw power. This insight comes from Polish-American diplomat and political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski in his book The Grand Chessboard, which offers a compelling parallel to the world of investing. Brzezinski’s analogy paints a vivid picture where nations are likened to chess pieces, with their geographic locations and potential weaknesses playing a pivotal role in the grand strategy of international relations.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, deeply mindful of Arthur Burns’ missteps and inspired by Paul Volcker’s tenacity, is fully cognisant of the historical significance of his role. I have consistently argued that Powell would benefit from studying William McChesney Martin’s tenure as the first post-Second World War Federal Reserve Chair in the 1950s. Martin adeptly navigated through a period of fiscal dominance, a pattern that is emerging once again. As Sir Winston Churchill implied, focusing on the wrong historical period can lead to policy errors and financial turmoil.
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