Market resilience amid geopolitical friction
The gulf between sentiment and reality was already wide at the beginning of the year. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has enlarged the incongruity between perceived risks and equity markets at all-time highs. Market resiliency is even more notable when considering the headwind of ongoing tariff uncertainty and a significant hawkish shift in […]
Market update: navigating recent geopolitical developments
We are all processing the significant developments over the weekend regarding the joint military strikes on Iran. With the confirmed death of Iran’s Supreme Leader and reports of retaliatory strikes across the Gulf, we have entered a period of heightened geopolitical risk that is already being reflected in the prices of oil, gold, and global […]
Wide divergence between perception and reality
The current economic landscape is defined by a paradoxical split where the experience of the average consumer stands in stark contrast to the exuberant heights of equity markets. Indeed, major stock market indices have recently climbed to all-time highs, while consumer sentiment remains mired in a state of malaise. We think the recent divergence of […]
2026 Market Outlook: Stimulus and productivity gains should outweigh near-term obstacles
Headlines move markets in the short term, but fundamentals drive longer-term performance. With one chapter yet to go, 2025 has been a case study in drivers of market volatility. Many investors, including us, commenced the year with an optimistic outlook. The largest economy in the world had just elected a new administration with a market-friendly […]
Understanding artificial intelligence through the echoes of past revolutions
Propelled by technological advancement, low interest rates, broad and frenzied investment appetite, and a laissez-faire regulatory environment, the path of human development is on the verge of material change even though it may not be abundantly clear now. Though this could describe the nascent phase of artificial intelligence (AI), it is also a description of […]
Trump’s reign of tariffs
Reciprocal tariffs were rolled out on schedule by President Donald Trump on April 2, but the breadth and magnitude were well above consensus. A 10 per cent baseline tariff was introduced on imports coming into the U.S. from 185 countries effective April 5, with much higher rates imposed on over 60 of these trading partners […]
Finding order in the chaos
With many of the same policy initiatives as the first Trump administration, muscle memory prompted markets to react positively to President Donald Trump’s electoral victory on November 5, 2024. Indeed, the S&P 500 gained 3.7 per cent from election day to inauguration day on January 20, paralleling the 5.8 per cent gain over the same […]
Trade war underway… ceasefire around the corner?
“I like making deals. Preferably big deals. That’s how I get my kicks.” “Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game.” Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal On March 4, President Donald Trump followed through on his tariff threat against […]
Tariff-ic uncertainty, again
It’s been said that there are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen. Lately, it feels like the latter. In addition to a flurry of Trump tariffs and executive orders, there’s been progress in some regional conflicts, seismic developments in the technology sector, shift in the path interest rates may take, […]
Navigating The Post-Election Environment With An Optimistic Lens
As 2024 winds down and the dawn of a new year approaches, a time-honoured tradition is to make predictions for the year ahead. Economic forecasting, and its implications for capital markets, tends to be challenging even in the best of times.