Navigating through the short and long term implications of the war
Until a few weeks ago, confidence was steadily recovering after a two-year global pandemic caused unprecedented disruption to the global economy. We now find the world plunged into another crisis and capital market volatility has returned. Like the first few weeks of the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has pushed the uncertainty barometer to […]
Central Banks Walking on a Knife’s edge
With a mandate of setting monetary policy, central banks have a profound effect on economic activity and personal wealth. Through the control of the money supply, interest rates, and regulation of credit and the banking system, central banks have the herculean mandates of maintaining price stability and maximizing employment. While the job of central banks […]
Picks and Shovels
On the morning of January 24, 1848, carpenter James Marshall was building a sawmill in Coloma, California (60km NE of Sacramento), when he spotted shiny flecks in the river below. His find was confirmed to be gold, thus setting off the California Gold Rush that would see 300,000 people descend on the region between 1848-1850. […]
The Recovery is Delayed, Not Cancelled
The rollout of vaccines at the beginning of the year was expected to be the silver bullet that ushered the global economy back to normal. While global vaccination campaigns have resulted in the gradual easing of restrictions, issues with efficacy against new variants and hesitancy mean that the path to full recovery has been slower […]
Inflation Holds the Key to Second-Half Market Performance
As the halfway point for 2021 approaches, it’s time to assess performance and recalibrate expectations for the balance of the year. In our December 2020 newsletter, our expectations for 2021 included positive equity markets driven by sector rotation (motivated by a gradual lifting of pandemic restrictions), headwinds for fixed income, higher commodity prices, and a […]
Growth At a Reasonable Price
Download PDF For the past several months, we’ve been concerned about speculative activity and overvaluation in certain pockets of the marketplace. Evidence of this has been widely available: elevated retail investor participation, increased number and size of initial public offerings, heightened usage of leverage, and detachment between fundamentals and prices resulting in high valuation multiples. […]
The Emperor’s New Clothes
Download PDF Optimism for the future abounds: the pace of vaccinations is accelerating, signs of Spring are everywhere, and exuberant equity markets are at all-time highs. For much of the past 12 months we have had a positive outlook on markets as the combination of attractive valuation and improving outlook encouraged an increased allocation to […]
The Grand Re-Opening: Hurry up and wait! – The Love Letter February 2020
With one son currently enrolled in the Royal Canadian Army Cadet program, two having aged-out after the age of 18 and me as a longtime civilian volunteer, the Jain household is accustomed to the idea of being instructed to hurry up only to then have to wait again. With the vaccination effort now underway, people […]
A Look Back at 2020…A Year When Experience, Discipline, and Teamwork Mattered
This year has been unprecedented in so many ways. Alongside the healthcare crisis and the political drama, global economies and capital markets were placed unwillingly onto a rollercoaster ride that still hasn’t ended. It’s been a period when investors’ emotions, namely fear and greed, have been tested. As 2020’s final chapter runs its course, we’re […]
It’s Darkest Before the Dawn
It’s a few days before the November 3rd U.S. election, and it’s being positioned as the most important in a generation. Supporters of each side are digging in. According to an October 25th Reuters poll, over 40% of each candidate’s supporters have indicated they won’t accept the result if their preferred candidate loses. Meanwhile, after […]